'Biggest Losers Aren't In Tehran:' Analyst Takes Aim At Trump Team Over Iran Fallout

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said the Iran war is still raising costs for Americans, arguing that higher fuel prices remain a consequence of the conflict and criticizing comments about 'offsetting tolls.' U.S. gas prices were $4.1290 per gallon and diesel $5.2790 per gallon on Thursday, both slightly lower on the day. The article also highlights renewed USMCA uncertainty and the importance of Canadian oil, which supplies 62% of U.S. oil imports and 25% of barrels entering U.S. refineries.

Analysis

The immediate market read is not that crude has to spike today, but that the policy premium around Middle East logistics remains sticky until there is a credible de-escalation path. That matters more for refined products than headline WTI: diesel, jet fuel, and Gulf Coast crack spreads are where bottlenecks and insurance/shipping costs show up first, so downstream operators with inventory optionality can outperform upstream producers in a flat crude tape.

The bigger second-order effect is on import sensitivity for the U.S. refining system. Canada exposure is a structural hedge, but any rhetoric that muddles USMCA creates a non-trivial risk of tariff or logistics friction on a supply chain that the U.S. refinery complex relies on for heavy barrels and feedstock optimization. In the next 1-3 months, that translates into a relative tailwind for integrated names with domestic logistics control and a headwind for refiners with less flexible slate access or higher Canadian crude dependence.

The contrarian point is that markets may already be partially pricing the geopolitical risk, while the consumer pain is only now becoming visible in politics. If retail fuel prices keep easing even modestly, the administration has room to de-emphasize the conflict narrative; that would compress the risk premium quickly. The trade is therefore not a directional bet on a major oil shock, but a relative-value expression around who captures spread widening versus who is exposed to policy noise and freight/inputs.

Watch for a policy reversal on either Iran or Canada: a real diplomatic de-escalation or a USMCA reassurance would likely remove the premium within days, while a tariff threat or shipping incident would extend it for weeks. The asymmetric setup favors assets with embedded commodity optionality and penalizes businesses whose margins depend on stable transport and feedstock costs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long XLE / short XLP for a 1-3 month horizon: energy has optionality to geopolitical spread widening while staples face consumer squeeze and weaker discretionary fuel demand; target 2:1 upside/downside with a stop if crude fails to hold recent support.
• Pair trade long integrated oils (XOM, CVX) vs short refiners with weaker crude flexibility (e.g., MPC on a relative basis only if Canadian slate risk rises): integrateds have better resilience if policy friction lifts feedstock costs, while refiners are more exposed to spread compression.
• Buy call spreads on OIH for 30-60 days: best risk/reward if shipping/insurance costs push Gulf Coast margins higher; use defined-risk structures because headline crude may stay range-bound even as refined-product cracks widen.
• Avoid chasing broad long crude here; instead, hold a tactical long in diesel-sensitive assets only if trucking/freight data confirms pass-through. If retail fuel prices keep easing for 2-4 weeks, trim geopolitical premium longs quickly.
• If USMCA noise escalates, consider a relative short in industrials and transport-dependent names vs long Canadian oil-linked equities; tariff/logistics friction is more likely to hit margin-sensitive supply chains than upstream energy producers.