Nvidia Stock Is Below $200 Per Share Again. Here's When It Could Hit $300.

Nvidia is viewed as having strong upside as AI hyperscaler data-center spending is expected to rise to $650B in 2026 and exceed $1T in 2027. The article cites Street expectations of 82% growth for the rest of the year and 41% growth in 2027, with fiscal 2028 EPS projected at $12.76; applying a 25x earnings multiple implies a potential ~$319 share price and a path to ~$300 in late 2027 (~50% upside). Despite recent selling pressure (down ~16% from highs), the piece argues the pullback is tied to overspending fears that hyperscalers say they won’t act on.

Analysis

The market is treating AI capex as a binary good/bad toggle, but the real question is how much of the 2027 spend path is already embedded in NVDA’s multiple. If hyperscaler budgets really keep compounding, NVDA can keep compounding too — but the marginal upside shifts from revenue growth to operating leverage and mix, while the downside becomes multiple compression if growth merely meets, rather than beats, the now-visible spend trajectory.

Second-order winners are the infrastructure names that monetize the whole buildout regardless of which accelerator wins share: TSM, AMAT, LRCX, MU, and power/cooling beneficiaries like VRT. NVDA is still the bellwether, but it is also the most crowded expression of the theme; that makes it more sensitive to any sign of custom silicon substitution, inventory digestion, or customer concentration risk than the article implies. The next 1-3 months are mostly about hyperscaler commentary and guide quality; the 6-18 month risk is that spend stays high but return-on-capital scrutiny rises, capping multiple expansion even if earnings stay strong.

Contrarianly, the consensus may be underestimating how much of the 2027 story is already front-loaded into sell-side models and positioning. If the next few earnings cycles only confirm the existing path rather than re-accelerate it, the stock can underperform even in a still-bullish AI tape. The thesis breaks if any major customer trims capex, pushes out deployments, or signals greater use of internal ASICs; conversely, a clean Blackwell ramp plus upward revisions to 2026 hyperscaler budgets would re-open the upside quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not chase the name after a rebound; wait for a 5-10% pullback or a post-earnings shakeout before adding NVDA, with a 3-6 month horizon and a 2:1 upside/downside setup if hyperscaler capex commentary remains firm.
• Pair trade: long NVDA / short AMD for 3-6 months to express continued accelerator share leadership; thesis works if platform/software lock-in outweighs product-cycle noise, and is invalidated by materially stronger AMD data-center traction.
• Prefer second-order AI infra exposure over outright NVDA beta: accumulate TSM or VRT on weakness as a higher-conviction way to own the capex supercycle with less single-name multiple risk.
• If already long NVDA, consider financing with covered calls into strength over the next 1-2 quarters; the risk/reward favors harvesting premium while waiting for the next capex catalyst.
• Watch the next MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL capex updates as the key falsifier; a downside revision there would likely hit NVDA first and hardest, while an upside revision would justify adding exposure immediately.