Jabil Circuit stock hits all-time high at 345.08 USD

The market is increasingly treating JBL as the cleanest public proxy for AI infrastructure hardware, but the more interesting setup is that its multiple expansion is now doing part of the fundamental work. Once a supplier is priced like a secular winner, customers and competitors often respond by accelerating qualification of alternate vendors to reduce bargaining power risk, which can create a lagged margin headwind even if demand stays strong. That means the next leg of upside is less about “AI demand exists” and more about whether JBL can keep converting mix into operating leverage without triggering a supply-chain re-routing cycle.

The second-order beneficiary may be the broader EMS and component ecosystem, but not uniformly. If JBL is taking share in high-complexity AI/server assemblies, smaller contract manufacturers and lower-tier suppliers can see a near-term volume halo while still getting squeezed on lead times and working capital. The real losers are likely low-value-add peers with similar end markets but weaker exposure to AI-driven capex, because capital is flowing toward the subset of suppliers with proven execution and capacity discipline.

From a risk perspective, the move is vulnerable to a timing mismatch: the stock is discounting several quarters of sustained AI spend, while the business still has meaningful cyclical exposure to customer inventory normalization and project timing. A 10-15% growth air pocket over the next 1-2 quarters would likely hit the stock harder than fundamentals because the valuation now leaves little room for execution variance. The near-term catalyst path is binary: another guidance raise or AI order commentary supports momentum; any sign of moderation in server demand or margin pressure could de-rate the stock quickly.

The consensus is likely underestimating how much of JBL’s rerating has already priced in the good news. This is no longer a clean earnings-disappointment setup; it is a durability test, and the burden of proof shifts to the bulls as the stock approaches peak optimism. In our view, upside from here is more likely to come from relative rotation within hardware supply chains than from outright multiple expansion in JBL itself.