CDON AB (CDOAF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

The key signal is not the headline GMV growth, but the mix shift underneath it: marketplace penetration is still early, which means incremental growth can remain capital-light for longer than the market likely expects. That creates a better operating leverage setup than a normal retail turnaround, because every basis point of take-rate and every improvement in traffic monetization should flow disproportionately into EBITDA once fixed platform costs are absorbed. The “European giants” contribution is especially important because it suggests the assortment gap is narrowing without CDON having to win the merchant acquisition war alone.

Second-order, this is more threatening to smaller regional e-commerce players than to the obvious large incumbents. A marketplace that can deepen SKU breadth while staying asset-light tends to pull demand away from standalone niche stores and long-tail DTC brands that rely on paid acquisition; those merchants will face rising CAC pressure just to defend visibility. The risk is that stronger GMV can still mask weak monetization if category mix tilts toward lower-margin goods or if the giant-partner contribution comes with lower economics, so the next few quarters matter more for quality of growth than top-line acceleration.

The setup is a classic “prove scaling” story over the next 2-3 quarters: if the growth initiatives start contributing in a measurable way, the market can rerate on forward EBITDA rather than current revenue, but if conversion of traffic to profit stalls, the multiple will compress fast because marketplaces are judged on efficiency, not just reach. The biggest tail risk is that the Nordic online marketplace gap closes more slowly than management expects, which would leave CDON spending ahead of monetization. A reversal would likely show up first in slower GPAM expansion before EBITDA disappoints, so that is the cleanest watchpoint.