Spire (SR) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Natural gas distributor Spire (SR) is projected to report a Q2 2025 loss of $0.09 per share on $410.69 million in revenue, despite a recent 5.56% downward revision in consensus EPS estimates. However, Zacks' analysis, combining a +14.81% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3, strongly indicates Spire is likely to beat its consensus EPS estimate when it reports on August 5th. This makes Spire a compelling earnings-beat candidate, despite a history of only one beat in the last four quarters.

Analysis

Spire Inc. (SR) presents a mixed but compelling scenario ahead of its upcoming earnings report for the quarter ended June 2025. The natural gas distributor is expected to report a loss of $0.09 per share, which marks a significant 35.7% year-over-year improvement in earnings, despite a projected 0.8% decline in revenue to $410.69 million. A key point of caution is the recent downward trend in analyst sentiment, with the consensus EPS estimate having been revised 5.56% lower over the last 30 days. However, this is strongly counteracted by the proprietary Zacks Earnings ESP model, which shows a positive reading of +14.81%. This metric, which gives more weight to the most recent analyst estimates, suggests a growing bullishness right before the release. Combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this pairing indicates a high statistical probability of an earnings beat. This forward-looking positive signal is tempered by the company's historical performance, as Spire has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters, including a -2.70% miss in the most recent period.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong positive Earnings ESP of +14.81% combined with a Zacks Rank #3, investors might consider the high probability of a near-term positive EPS surprise, which could act as a catalyst for the stock post-earnings.
• Caution is warranted due to the company's poor track record of beating estimates, with only one positive surprise in the last four quarters, and the recent 5.56% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month.
• Investors should look beyond the headline earnings number to management's guidance on the earnings call, as commentary on business conditions will be critical to understanding the drivers of the projected revenue decline and the sustainability of any price movement.