Pre-Market Earnings Report for November 26, 2025 : DE, LI, HDL, CLGN

Ahead of the 11/26/2025 open, four companies are expected to report quarterly results with mixed analyst outlooks: Deere & Company (DE) consensus EPS $3.96, down 12.97% year-over-year (10 analysts) with a 2025 P/E of 26.29 vs. industry 18.20 and a track record of beating estimates each quarter over the past year. Li Auto (LI) consensus EPS $0.04 (1 analyst), down 89.47% y/y with a 2025 P/E of 33.56 vs. industry 12.40. SUPER HI International (HDL) consensus EPS $0.20 (1 analyst), down 66.67% y/y and a 2025 P/E of 21.48 (industry -205.60). CollPlant Biotechnologies (CLGN) consensus EPS $0.38 (1 analyst), up 200.00% y/y but showing a negative 2025 P/E (-24.67) versus industry -4.80. These consensus moves and divergent P/E profiles highlight company-specific drivers rather than broad market signals, with Deere’s size and historical beats likely to attract the greatest investor attention.

Analysis

Market structure: Deere's guidance/earnings trajectory signals softer new-equipment demand but persistent aftermarket strength; a 13% y/y EPS decline to $3.96 with a history of beats suggests winners are spare-parts suppliers and dealers (cash-generative), losers are OEM capital-goods suppliers and industrial metals exposure. Li Auto's 89% EPS drop signals margin compression at Chinese EV OEMs — battery and semiconductor suppliers will see revenue/volatility hits if deliveries slow. CollPlant (CLGN) is idiosyncratic biotech risk with upside on 200% EPS growth but limited market-impact beyond small-cap biotech flows.

Risk assessment: Immediate (days) risk is earnings-driven IV spikes and +/-20–30% moves for LI and CLGN; short-term (weeks) risk centers on guidance and China policy for LI and dealer inventories/backlog updates for DE; long-term (12–24 months) risks include crop-price swings, higher rates compressing capex, China EV subsidy/regulatory shifts, and binary clinical/regulatory outcomes for CLGN. Tail risks: China delisting/regulatory action for LI, clinical read failure or cash runway <12 months for CLGN, and extreme weather hitting farm equipment orders for DE.

Trade implications: Favor tactically long DE relative to cyclicals but hedged — risk-managed 2–3% size with protective options; for LI prefer asymmetric downside exposure (60-DTE put spread) sized 0.5–1%; for CLGN use small bullish optionality (3–9 month call/LEAP 0.5–1%) to capture binary upside. Cross-asset: weaker DE/LI demand pressures industrial commodity prices (steel, copper) and could modestly widen high-yield spreads; FX sensitivity for LI to CNY moves within 1–2% will magnify ADR moves.

Contrarian angles: The market may underprice Deere's ability to beat again—a repeat beat would generate 10–20% upside amid sentiment pessimism; conversely LI's one-analyst consensus makes current pricing fragile — a delivery beat could spark >30% short-covering. Historical parallels: Deere tends to trade seasonally with order-book visibility improving post-harvest; unintended consequence: short LI or CLGN without event-hedges risks large squeezes on binary positive surprises.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Deere (DE) ahead of 11/26 earnings, financed size, and immediately buy a 30–45 DTE put (≈5% OTM) as insurance costing no more than ~0.5% portfolio; trim or close if DE gaps up >12% or drops >15% intraday.
• Avoid outright long on Li Auto (LI); instead implement a 60-DTE bearish put spread sized 0.5–1% of portfolio (buy ATM put / sell ~15–20% OTM put) to capture expected downside while capping premium, and take profits if LI falls ≥30% or cut at a 10% adverse move.
• Take a small 0.5–1% speculative long in CollPlant (CLGN) via 6–12 month LEAP calls or 3–6 month call options to play binary positive catalysts; set a hard stop to limit loss to full premium if no positive data or cash-runway red flag emerges within 6 months.
• Execute a 1–1.5% pair trade: long DE (1.5%) vs short Caterpillar (CAT) (1.0%) to express Deere-specific resilience vs broader heavy-equipment cyclicals; rebalance if the spread moves >8% or after next monthly industrials PMI release.
• Monitor three specific catalysts over next 30–60 days before reallocating: (1) US crop-price indices (corn/wheat) — >10% sustained decline would reduce DE demand; (2) China EV policy/delivery updates for LI — any subsidy reinstatement or delivery beat could reverse downside; (3) CLGN cash runway or trial readouts — sub-12-month runway requires de-risking.