2 S&P 500 Dividend Stocks That Could Climb More Than 20% According to Wall Street Analysts

Wall Street analysts project significant upside for Eli Lilly (LLY) and ConocoPhillips (COP), forecasting gains of 29% and 28% respectively, despite recent stock declines. Eli Lilly's anticipated rebound, following a clinical trial setback for orforglipron, is underpinned by robust sales growth of Zepbound/Mounjaro and its oncology portfolio. ConocoPhillips is expected to deliver strong returns through aggressive share buybacks and anticipated free cash flow expansion, with both companies noted for their commitment to substantial shareholder returns.

Analysis

Wall Street analysts project significant upside for both Eli Lilly (LLY) and ConocoPhillips (COP), with consensus price targets implying potential gains of 29% and 28%, respectively. For Eli Lilly, the bullish case is anchored in the robust performance of its tirzepatide franchise (Zepbound and Mounjaro), which saw sales soar 121% year-over-year to $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025, a key factor given the forecast for the weight-loss drug market to reach $150 billion by 2033. This growth outlook appears to outweigh the recent disappointment from the orforglipron oral drug trial, which led to a stock price decline but may now be fully priced in. The company's portfolio is further supported by drugs like Verzenio, with sales growth of 11% to $2.7 billion, and a history of doubling its dividend payout over five years despite a current modest yield of 0.8%. ConocoPhillips' investment thesis centers on aggressive capital returns and future cash flow expansion. While its stock is down 30% from its peak and the dividend has been stable, the company is prioritizing share repurchases, spending $1.2 billion on buybacks in the second quarter and reducing its share count by 3.5% since the Marathon Oil acquisition. Management anticipates annual free cash flow to increase by over $7 billion in the next four years, driven by the Marathon integration and asset sales, suggesting significant capacity for enhanced shareholder returns, though this remains contingent on stable energy prices.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors could interpret Eli Lilly's recent stock decline, following the orforglipron trial data, as a potential entry point, focusing on the powerful growth trajectory of its Zepbound/Mounjaro franchise and a proven history of dividend growth.
• For ConocoPhillips, the investment focus should be on total shareholder yield, factoring in the aggressive share buyback program alongside the 3.3% dividend yield, with the forward outlook heavily dependent on management's ability to deliver a projected $7 billion increase in annual free cash flow.
• Given the reliance on specific catalysts, it is prudent to monitor the sales velocity of Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs and track oil price trends and the execution of the Marathon Oil integration for ConocoPhillips, as these factors are critical to achieving the forecasted returns.