MOS vs. NTR: Which Fertilizer Giant is the Better Pick Now?

The fertilizer market is experiencing robust global demand for potash and phosphate, driven by favorable agricultural economics, low inventories, and rising prices, benefiting major producers Mosaic (MOS) and Nutrien (NTR). Mosaic is positioned for significant earnings growth (60.1% for 2025) and trades at a more attractive forward P/E of 11.76x, underpinned by substantial cost reductions ($250M by 2026) and recent capacity expansions. While Nutrien also reports record potash sales and cost savings ($200M in 2025), it faces headwinds from lower nitrogen operating rates in H2 2025, leading the analysis to favor Mosaic due to its valuation and higher growth projections.

Analysis

The fertilizer sector is experiencing a robust cyclical upswing, driven by strong agricultural economics, low channel inventories, and rising prices for key nutrients like potash and phosphate. Both The Mosaic Company (MOS) and Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) are capitalizing on this environment, but a comparative fundamental analysis reveals a distinct advantage for Mosaic. MOS demonstrates superior forward-looking growth prospects, with consensus estimates for 2025 pointing to a 60.1% year-over-year increase in EPS on 16.8% sales growth, significantly outpacing NTR's projected 26.2% EPS growth on a 3.4% sales increase. Furthermore, MOS trades at a more attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 11.76x, a 10.4% discount to the industry average, whereas NTR trades at a higher 12.79x multiple. While both firms are generating strong cash flow and pursuing cost-reduction programs, Mosaic's capital return profile appears more dynamic, featuring a 41.6% five-year annualized dividend growth rate and a sustainable 49% payout ratio. In contrast, Nutrien faces a specific operational headwind, with planned turnarounds expected to lower its nitrogen operating rates from 98% in H1 to approximately 85% in H2 2025, potentially weighing on volumes and margins.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors seeking exposure to the fertilizer upcycle should consider overweighting The Mosaic Company (MOS) relative to Nutrien (NTR), given its more compelling valuation, superior consensus earnings growth forecast of 60.1%, and a more aggressive dividend growth history.
• Monitor Nutrien's second-half performance closely, as the guided reduction in nitrogen operating rates to ~85% presents a near-term risk to volume and profitability that could lead to underperformance versus peers.
• For relative value strategies, a pairs trade of long MOS and short NTR could be considered to capitalize on Mosaic's stronger growth outlook and valuation discount, while hedging against the specific operational headwinds affecting Nutrien.
• Given the high dividend growth rate of 41.6% and a conservative payout ratio of 49%, MOS may be a more suitable holding for dividend growth investors compared to NTR, which has a higher current yield but a much lower growth rate and a higher payout ratio of 66%.