Topps will release NFL trading cards for the first time since 2016

Topps will issue NFL trading cards for the first time since 2016 after Fanatics Collectibles secured a multi-year exclusive NFL/NFLPA license; the inaugural product, 2025 Topps Chrome Football, will release April 15. The set includes one-of-one Rookie PREM1ERE Patch Autograph and NFL Honors Gold Shield Autograph cards—featuring rookies (including top overall pick Cam Ward) and 2024 award winners Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Patrick Surtain II, Jayden Daniels and Jared Verse—and the deal grants Fanatics global distribution following its 2022 acquisition of Topps.

Analysis

Fanatics’ control of primary NFL card issuance creates a vertical shock to the collectibles value chain: by owning production, licensing and distribution they can compress margins for secondary marketplaces (listing fees, seller take-rates) and capture SKU-level pricing power. Expect near-term dislocation in bidding velocity on third-party platforms as supply becomes more predictable and exclusive drops migrate to Fanatics’ channels; this will show up as lower take-rates and fewer high-frequency listings within 30–90 days.

Grading and authentication businesses face a bifurcated outcome — volume should rise as rookie-era product proliferation drives submissions, but grading mix will shift toward lower-margin, mass-market parallels unless Fanatics restricts print runs or routes exclusives through in-house or preferred graders. A single large authentication failure or patch provenance dispute would be an asymmetric negative that can depress secondary prices across cohorts for 3–12 months and invite regulatory scrutiny on licensing concentration.

The market consensus underestimates the optionality in Fanatics’ ability to bundle experiences (drops + digital ownership + ticket incentives) which could raise lifetime value per fan and structurally change wallet share. That said, the upside is conditional: if Fanatics floods the market or monetizes less aggressively, typical scarcity premia erode and prices could mean-revert within 12–24 months; conversely, tight limited releases could create outsized scarcity-driven returns for select issues.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short EBAY (EBAY) 3–6 month put spread: initiate puts to express downside from a 5–15% volume contraction in trading-card listings over the next 90 days as Topps/Fanatics moves traffic off-platform. Risk: marketplace adaptability and fee diversification; Reward: 20–35% capital return if GMV declines materially.
• Long Funko (FNKO) 12–24 month buy-and-hold: buy shares or LEAP calls to play higher endemic collector engagement and licensing monetization as more mainstream, affordable collectibles see renewed demand. Risk: discretionary spend slowdown; Target return: +30–50% if category growth sustains.
• Long DraftKings (DKNG) 6–12 month call position (modest size): hedge-on for cross-promotional monetization—increased NFL fan engagement and card-driven campaigns can boost DAUs and ARPU short-to-medium term. Risk: regulatory/betting environment; Reward: asymmetric if Fanatics partnership fuels engagement spikes.
• Event hedge: buy protection (OTM puts) on grading/auction adjacents or set alerts for headline risk (authentication recall or licensing probe). Timeline: 0–6 months; Size protection to 25–50% of collectible exposure to guard against a 15–40% shock to secondary prices.