NEWSMAKER Ivory Coast's Ouattara looks to ride economic boom to fourth term

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara is positioned for a third, potentially final, term, with analysts forecasting his re-election amid strong economic growth and infrastructure development under his leadership. His path is further cleared by a fragmented opposition and the exclusion of major challengers, including former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, due to nationality issues. While critics cite restrictions on democratic activities, the political environment is expected to remain stable, supported by security measures. Ouattara's next term is anticipated to focus on achieving middle-income status by 2030, though the long-term question of his succession remains a complex challenge for the ruling party.

Analysis

President Alassane Ouattara is strongly positioned for a third term in Ivory Coast's upcoming October 25 election, driven by voter satisfaction with robust economic growth and significant infrastructure development since 2011. Projects include new roads, interchanges, and a 300-meter tower, reflecting tangible progress. This anticipated re-election is further facilitated by a fragmented opposition and the exclusion of key challengers, such as former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, due to legal technicalities.

Despite past political turbulence, the current environment is expected to remain stable, supported by a ban on election-related protests and the deployment of 44,000 security forces. Critics, however, highlight restrictions on democratic activities, which Amnesty International described as "disproportionate." While stability is projected, the underlying political landscape exhibits elements of constrained dissent.

Ouattara's potential fourth term is anticipated to prioritize economic targets, aiming for middle-income status by 2030, alongside further infrastructure projects like the Abidjan metro and improved utilities. A significant long-term challenge remains the question of succession, particularly after the death of his chosen successor in 2020, suggesting potential future intra-party divisions despite Ouattara's stated motivation to eventually step down.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor Ivory Coast's post-election political stability, given the current administration's focus on economic growth and infrastructure development.
• Evaluate potential opportunities in sectors benefiting from government spending, such as construction, utilities, and consumer goods, aligned with the country's 2030 middle-income status goal.
• Factor in the long-term succession challenge, as this unresolved issue could introduce future political uncertainty despite current stability.