Pre-Market Earnings Report for January 13, 2026 : JPM, BK, DAL, CNXC

JPMorgan Chase (quarter ended 12/31/2025) is forecast to report EPS of $5.01 (consensus of 9 analysts), up 4.16% year-over-year with a 2025 P/E of 16.40 versus industry 20.90; the firm has beaten consensus each quarter over the past year. Bank of New York Mellon is expected to log $1.97 EPS (8 analysts), +14.53% YoY and a 2025 P/E of 16.09 vs industry 14.30. Delta Air Lines is forecast at $1.53 EPS (8 analysts), down 17.3% YoY with a 2025 P/E of 12.42, while Concentrix (quarter ended 11/30/2025) has one analyst at $2.50 EPS, down 15.54% YoY, a recent string of negative surprises and a 2025 P/E of 4.46 vs industry 19.50 — a mixed set of results that could buoy large-cap banks while highlighting stress in airlines and volatility in smaller services names.

Analysis

Market structure: Large-cap banks (JPM, BK) are positioned as near-term winners if the quarter confirms rate-driven NII stability and asset-servicing fee growth—BK’s consensus +14.5% EPS and JPM’s streak of beats imply incremental share gains in custody/treasury services and resilient trading. Airlines (DAL) and business services (CNXC) are losers: DAL’s -17% EPS guidance signals demand/margin pressure and sensitivity to fuel/capacity; CNXC’s 4.5x P/E flags either deep cyclical stress or one-off accounting that will deter multiple expansion.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include sudden deposit outflows or a regulatory capital action for banks, a jet-fuel shock or travel demand slump for DAL, and client concentration loss or contract write-downs at CNXC—each could move shares 20–40% in weeks. Immediate (days) moves hinge on beat/miss surprises; short-term (1–3 months) on revisions to guidance; long-term (quarters) on structural fee trends and cost curves. Hidden dependency: bank earnings remain highly rate-sensitive (NII delta per 25bp move) and BK’s AUC/AUM mix can reverse quickly with markets.

Trade implications: Tactical longs in BK and selective JPM (size 1.5–3% each) with defined stops; avoid outright long CNXC equity—use puts or short size <1% for asymmetric payoff. For DAL, prefer put spreads to exploit directional downside while capping premium; rotate 2–4% from cyclical consumer names into financials if Fed expectations hold.

Contrarian angles: The market underestimates BK’s fee resilience and potential P/E re-rating vs peers—a 10–25% upside within 3–6 months if AUC stabilizes. Conversely, CNXC’s ultra-low P/E may reflect accounting/cash-flow risks not priced by momentum players; a failed beat could trigger >30% downside, so risk-reward favors options-based short exposure rather than sizey cash shorts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in BK within 1–3 trading days post-earnings; set a hard stop at -8% and take-profit trim at +12% (target +20% within 3–6 months) given +14.5% EPS growth and underappreciated fee momentum.
• Initiate a 1.5–2% long in JPM or a 3-month 1.5/2.5 strike bull-call spread (debit-limited) immediately after print; target +10–15% in 1–3 months, stop-loss -6% to limit exposure to a rare trading revenue miss.
• Implement a directional hedge on DAL: buy 3-month put spread (e.g., 1–2% portfolio notional) with strikes ~10–20% OTM depending on premium to capture downside from expected margin compression; exit or roll if oil moves >+10% in 30 days or if guidance materially improves.
• Avoid cash long in CNXC; instead establish a small asymmetric short via buying 3-month OTM puts (0.5–1% risk) or a put calendar if IV is elevated. If CNXC misses again and guidance is cut, scale short to 1.5–2% within 2 weeks; cover on >30% rally or positive client-news flow.
• Monitor three catalysts over next 30–90 days before scaling: (1) Fed rate path and 2yr/10yr steepness (NII sensitivity), (2) BK AUC/AUM and deposit trends vs prior quarter thresholds (±3% move), and (3) DAL fuel-hedge disclosure and forward load factors—act within 5 trading days of material deviations.