SpaceX just went public. This analyst thinks these related stocks are worth buying

Clear Street identified four SpaceX-related stocks as either competitors or complementary plays, with buy-rated Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile all framed as potential IPO-day beneficiaries. Price targets imply upside of 44% for LUNR, 55% for PL, 12% for RKLB and 18% for ASTS. The note suggests SpaceX's public listing could lift sentiment across the space ecosystem, even where direct competition is limited.

Analysis

The first-order read is that a SpaceX IPO is less about direct fundamentals and more about category repricing: it creates a public comp for the entire vertically integrated space stack. That should mechanically help RKLB most over the next few sessions because it is the closest liquid proxy for investors who want a “SpaceX beta” without waiting for lockup periods or private-market access. The cleaner the market believes the SpaceX narrative is, the more multiple expansion should accrue to the few public names with credible launch cadence, backlog visibility, and adjacent infrastructure optionality.

The more interesting second-order effect is that LUNR and ASTS may outperform on different clocks. LUNR is a sentiment beneficiary immediately, but the real upside comes if the IPO improves capital availability for lunar infrastructure and cislunar contracts over the next 6-18 months; that is a funding-cycle trade, not just a headline trade. ASTS is subtler: if Starlink intensifies competition with carriers, the incumbents’ strategic value of a D2D hedge rises, making T and VZ more likely to support ASTS commercialization even if near-term subscriber economics remain unproven.

PL is the cleanest contrarian: the market may lazily bid all space names on the IPO, but PL’s business is one layer removed from launch/connectivity and should have the weakest fundamental transmission. That creates a useful relative-value setup if the group overextends. The main reversal risk across the basket is that the IPO becomes a “sell the news” event after the first 1-3 sessions, especially if valuation chatter shifts from dream optionality to near-term dilution, execution risk, and capital intensity.

The consensus may be underestimating how much a public SpaceX benchmark compresses the dispersion within space equities. Once investors can anchor on one dominant private asset, public names with weaker unit economics may get punished faster, while those with real scarcity value as the only listed proxies can sustain a higher multiple for months. The key is not whether the sector is bullish; it’s which names have true scarcity premium versus narrative-only premium.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long RKLB into and through the first 1-3 trading sessions around the SpaceX IPO; target a 10-15% sympathy move with a tight 5-7% stop if the market treats the IPO as a non-event.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: long LUNR / short PL for 2-8 weeks, betting that lunar infrastructure monetizes the SpaceX halo more directly than Earth-observation data does; target 1.5-2.0x upside capture versus downside on the short leg.
• Buy ASTS as a 1-3 month strategic hedge against carrier defensiveness; the trade works if T and VZ conclude D2D is a competitive necessity, with upside skew improving if carrier commentary turns constructive.
• Use T or VZ on the long side only as a catalyst-driven hedge, not a core beta long: position for a modest rerating if management frames ASTS as a defensive partner, but cut quickly if the market interprets D2D as margin dilution.
• Consider selling out-of-the-money calls on PL into the IPO-induced sentiment spike; the name has the weakest fundamental linkage and is most vulnerable to a fade once the sector bid broadens.