Buy or Sell FDX Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

FedEx is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on June 24, 2025, with analysts anticipating EPS of $5.86 on sales of $21.8 billion, an increase from the $5.41 EPS on $22.1 billion in sales reported in the same quarter last year. Historically, FedEx's stock has shown mixed reactions to earnings releases, with positive one-day returns occurring 50% of the time (median increase of 6.6%) and negative returns the other 50% (median decrease of 4.8%). Traders can leverage these historical trends for pre- and post-earnings positioning, considering the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns to inform their strategies.

Analysis

FedEx is poised to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on June 24, 2025, with analysts anticipating earnings per share (EPS) of $5.86 on sales of $21.8 billion. This forecast represents an expected increase in EPS from $5.41 reported in the same quarter last year, although sales are projected to slightly decrease from $22.1 billion. Over the past twelve months, FedEx has generated $88 billion in revenue, $6.0 billion in operating profits, and $3.9 billion in net income, with a current market capitalization of $54 billion. Historically, FedEx's stock reaction to earnings has been evenly split over the last five years: 50% of releases led to positive one-day returns with a median increase of 6.6%, while the other 50% resulted in negative one-day returns with a median decrease of 4.8%. This 50/50 pattern of post-earnings stock movement has been consistent over the last three years as well. The article suggests that event-driven traders can utilize these historical trends and the correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D, 21D) post-earnings returns for strategic positioning.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the 50/50 historical split in post-earnings stock performance, with median gains of 6.6% and median losses of 4.8%, investors should prepare for potential volatility around the June 24th announcement.
• Evaluate the upcoming Q4 EPS of $5.86 and sales of $21.8 billion against prior year figures and analyst expectations, as an EPS beat despite lower sales could indicate strong operational efficiency or effective cost management.
• Traders may consider leveraging historical data on post-earnings return correlations, such as between 1-day and subsequent 5-day returns, to inform short-term trading strategies following the earnings release, particularly if positioning after an initial positive or negative stock reaction.