Strava says the most popular running shoe is now made by Asics – dethroning a long-time Nike favourite

Strava's Year in Sport report names the Asics Novablast (now in its fifth iteration) as the most-worn running shoe of 2025, displacing the Nike Pegasus into second place and placing the Hoka Clifton third globally (second in the UK). The report highlights a consumer shift toward max‑cushioned daily trainers — the Novablast's latest model features 40.5mm of midsole foam — and shows Apple as the most-used device for recording workouts (Garmin second) while Coros is the fastest-growing watch brand, signaling demand trends across footwear and wearable device markets that could affect near-term sales and product positioning for these brands.

Analysis

Market structure: The Strava datapoint signals share gains for Asics’ Novablast (product-led, niche re-rating potential) and continued ecosystem strength for Apple Watch; Nike (NKE) and Garmin (GRMN) face measurable erosion in daily‑trainer and watch mindshare. Expect modest pricing power shift toward max‑cushion suppliers and specialty brands; raw foam demand up ~+10–20% per-unit by weight vs older models could squeeze lower‑tier makers without scale.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a product recall (shoe or watch batteries), foam/raw material supply shock (petrochemical price spike), or antitrust action on Apple — each could move equities ±10–30% in a stress event. Immediate (days): sentiment blips around the report; short (1–3 months): earnings/campaign reactions; long (3–12 months): product cycles and share reallocation. Hidden dependencies: Strava skews toward serious runners, not mass leisure buyers — scalability of Novablast’s win is uncertain.

Trade implications: Tactical long AAPL exposure to play wearable leadership (3–6 month horizon) and a relative short/underweight in GRMN to exploit device share loss; small hedge/put on NKE to protect against product‑cycle weakness. Options: use 3‑month call spreads on AAPL and 3‑month put spreads on NKE/GRMN to control risk while targeting asymmetric payoff. Sector rotation: reduce broad consumer discretionary exposure by 2–4% and reallocate into selective wearables/athleisure winners.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underweights the persistence of niche brand re‑ratings (Deckers/Hoka precedent) and overstates Nike’s vulnerability — scale still defends margins. Overreaction risk: shorting NKE heavily is likely overdone; underpriced risk: mid‑cap specialty footwear (Asics/DECK analogs) could re-rate 15–30% if retail sell‑through data confirms trend.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in AAPL (ticker AAPL) for 3–6 months to capture wearable ecosystem upside; implement via a 3‑month call spread ~5–8% OTM sized to 1–2% notional, and trim if AAPL outperforms the S&P by +8% within 30 days.
• Initiate a pair trade: long AAPL 2% vs short GRMN 1.5% (tickers AAPL/GRMN) for 3 months to play share shift in watches; cover the short if GRMN outperforms AAPL on a 30‑day relative return > +7%.
• Protect footwear exposure by buying a 3‑month put spread on NKE (size = hedge for 1–2% portfolio exposure, strikes ~7–10% OTM) or establish a 1% tactical short in NKE to hedge product‑cycle risk; unwind if NKE underperforms the S&P by >12% in 60 days.
• Watch raw material signals: if Brent crude rises >10% or ethylene/foam indices rise >12% over 60 days, increase hedges in footwear names by +1–2% (convert shorts to larger put spreads) to guard margin compression.