Weekly Commentary: Bessent's Gambit

The US unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% (lowest since Jan 2025), while July manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in over four years. The report points to strong demand, faster production, and firms adding workers—supportive for growth expectations and potentially reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance on policy. Overall, the data is likely to move markets as it affects near-term rate and recession risk pricing.

Analysis

The US unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% (lowest since Jan 2025), while July manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in over four years. The report points to strong demand, faster production, and firms adding workers—supportive for growth expectations and potentially reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance on policy. Overall, the data is likely to move markets as it affects near-term rate and recession risk pricing.