Lodge Hill Capital Dumps Freeport-McMoRan Shares Ahead of a Major Trump Decision

Lodge Hill Capital fully divested its 587,820-share stake in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) during Q2 2025, a position estimated at $22.25 million and representing over 5% of its assets under management. This complete exit appears to follow an unsuccessful speculative trade on anticipated U.S. copper tariff policy changes, as the firm's prior investment in Q4 2024 preceded the Trump administration's decision *not* to tariff refined copper. While existing 50% tariffs on other copper-intensive products continue to impact FCX and COMEX copper prices, leading to FCX's recent underperformance, the company is still considered a long-term play on electrification-driven copper demand.

Analysis

Lodge Hill Capital has fully divested its stake in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) during the second quarter of 2025, liquidating 587,820 shares with an estimated value of $22.25 million. This was a significant position, representing over 5% of the fund's assets under management. The timing of the exit, following a purchase of 250,000 shares in Q4 2024, suggests the unwinding of a speculative trade premised on anticipated US trade policy. The key negative catalyst was the late-July decision by the Trump administration not to apply tariffs to refined copper. This policy outcome directly disadvantaged FCX, which produces over 70% of US refined copper, and eliminated the 28% price premium that COMEX copper had held over the LME price. This event has contributed to the stock's recent underperformance, with shares down nearly 3% over the last 12 months, trailing the S&P 500 by 19.7 percentage points. Despite the policy setback and investor exit, the company's valuation metrics remain notable, including a forward P/E of 15.97, an EV/EBITDA of 8.6, and a five-year revenue CAGR of 11.86%, positioning it as a potential long-term investment vehicle for the global electrification trend.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should interpret Lodge Hill Capital's exit not as a judgment on Freeport-McMoRan's core fundamentals, but as a specific reaction to an unfavorable, short-term trade policy outcome.
• The stock's recent underperformance, driven by the tariff news, may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe in the secular demand for copper from electrification, given the company's valuation metrics.
• Monitor US trade policy on copper-related goods closely, as this remains a key variable impacting FCX's profitability and the domestic copper price premium, representing the primary near-term risk.