November Nymex natural gas prices declined 1.92% to a one-week low following a larger-than-expected EIA inventory build of 80 bcf for the week ended October 3, surpassing the 77 bcf consensus. This bearish inventory report, alongside the EIA's upward revision of 2025 US natural gas production forecasts to 107.14 bcf/day and near-record production levels, underscores a well-supplied market. While cooler temperature forecasts offer some demand support, the prevailing supply-side dynamics, including robust production and elevated inventories, continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
November Nymex natural gas (NGX25) prices declined by 1.92% to a one-week low following a larger-than-expected weekly EIA inventory build. Inventories rose by +80 bcf for the week ended October 3, surpassing the consensus estimate of +77 bcf, signaling an adequately supplied market with inventories +4.5% above their 5-year seasonal average. The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by robust supply-side dynamics. The EIA revised its 2025 US natural gas production forecast upwards by +0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day, with current US dry gas production near record highs at 107.0 bcf/day. The number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs also increased by +1 to 118, approaching a 2-year high. Despite these supply pressures, some demand-side support emerged from forecasts for cooler US temperatures in mid-October, potentially boosting heating demand. Additionally, US electricity output rose +2.91% year-over-year in the week ended October 4, indicating sustained demand from the power sector. However, the prevailing market indicators, including elevated production and higher-than-expected inventory builds, suggest that supply strength is currently outweighing potential demand increases, maintaining downward pressure on natural gas prices.
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Overall Sentiment
strongly negative
Sentiment Score
-0.60
Ticker Sentiment
