Big Opening Is Projected For ‘Michael,’ But It May Not Be Enough

The market is treating this as a one-weekend event, but the real issue is franchise economics: a $200M negative cost picture needs exceptional legs, not just a strong debut. A soft critical reception increases the probability that front-loaded premium-format demand peaks quickly, which matters because IMAX/PLF can mask opening-week weakness but do little for weeks 2-4 if word-of-mouth stalls. In other words, the distribution mix boosts the first 72 hours, but it also raises the bar for sustained attendance because the film needs repeat-viewing and older demo turnout to justify the spend.

The second-order loser is not just Lionsgate cash flow; it is also the broader musical-biopic pipeline. If this underperforms relative to expectations, studios may re-rate the willingness to greenlight high-budget prestige biopics with controversial subjects, shifting spend toward lower-budget, streamer-friendly titles with less P&A risk. That would pressure talent/producer economics in the genre more than theater operators, since exhibitor economics are largely insulated by the opening-weekend premium format mix.

The contrarian angle is that negative reviews may be partially priced in and could even help the opening by sharpening the event narrative for casual viewers. The bigger driver is whether audience scores diverge materially from critics, because the box office outcome over the next 10-14 days will be determined by families, fans, and nostalgia-driven viewers rather than reviewers. If audience reception is merely average, the film can still clear a large opening; if it is polarized, the collapse from opening weekend to week two could be severe enough to impair downstream international and home-entertainment value.