Prediction: Here's What SpaceX Stock Will Do After Its First Earnings Report

SpaceX (SPCX) reports first quarterly earnings on Aug. 4, but ~20% of insider-held shares will unlock two days after Q2 earnings—creating likely selling pressure through the rest of 2026. With 4.6B shares currently in lockup out of 13B total shares outstanding, the unlock schedule (and additional unlocking over 2026 excluding Elon Musk’s shares) raises downside risk to the stock even as revenue growth continues. Fundamentals remain loss-making for now (e.g., operating earnings of about -$2.5B in 2Q/2025), with heavy capex of ~$21B in 2025 vs ~$18.7B revenue largely tied to Starlink.

Analysis

This is a supply event masquerading as an earnings event. In the first 1-3 weeks after the print, price discovery will be driven by who needs liquidity, not by the quarter itself. Because the initial unlock lands into a still-restricted float and the release schedule extends through year-end, any post-earnings bounce is likely to be used as distribution by early holders, which is the setup that typically compresses the multiple before the business fundamentals matter.

The second-order winners are the cash-generative AI platforms and infrastructure suppliers that investors can own as "real" exposure while the orbital-compute narrative de-risks. GOOGL benefits if capital rotates toward monetized AI/cloud names, and NVDA benefits if the market keeps funding the picks-and-shovels layer while punishing long-dated capex stories. The main loser is SPCX itself, but adjacent pre-profit space/AI infrastructure names can also see sympathy derating if investors start demanding shorter payback periods.

The contrarian risk is that the unlock is already fully telegraphed and secondary demand from crossover funds or strategic buyers absorbs supply faster than expected. That would invalidate a short if SPCX can hold above the pre-unlock range for 2-4 weeks on heavy volume, especially if management pairs the release with tangible backlog or commercialization milestones. Absent that, the path of least resistance is lower into Q4 as the market treats it as a liquidity-overhang special situation rather than a decade-long compounder.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short SPCX into any post-earnings strength or failed bounce; 6-12 week horizon. Use a 8-10% stop above the post-print high and look for 20-30% downside as the first unlock is digested.
• Buy SPCX 3-6 month put spreads, ideally 10-20% out of the money, to express the lockup-overhang view with defined risk and less dependence on borrow availability.
• Relative value: long GOOGL / short SPCX for 1-3 months as a barbell between monetized AI and speculative AI optionality; thesis breaks if SPCX holds firm through the first unlock and GOOGL loses cloud/AI momentum.
• If SPCX options are illiquid, wait for the first unlock week and only enter after volume spikes fail to reclaim the pre-unlock range; avoid paying peak implied vol into the event.