Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protests

Madagascar's Col. Michael Randrianirina has been sworn in as president following a military coup that ousted former President Andry Rajoelina amidst widespread protests fueled by economic hardship. This unconstitutional power transition, which includes the suspension of civil institutions and formation of a military council despite promises of future elections, has drawn international condemnation from the UN and African Union, leading to Madagascar's AU suspension. The event highlights significant political and economic instability in one of the world's poorest nations, reflecting a broader regional trend of military takeovers in former French African colonies, and signals increased investment risk.

Analysis

Madagascar has undergone an unconstitutional change of government, with Col. Michael Randrianirina sworn in as president following the impeachment of former President Andry Rajoelina. This transition, fueled by youth-led protests over severe economic hardships like unemployment and power cuts, has resulted in significant civil unrest and fatalities. The event signals a profound deterioration in political stability and governance.

International bodies, including the United Nations and the African Union, have strongly condemned the military takeover, leading to Madagascar's suspension from the AU. Despite promises of elections within two years, Randrianirina has suspended civil institutions and formed a military council, indicating a clear move away from democratic norms. This raises significant concerns regarding the rule of law and future policy predictability.

The coup exacerbates Madagascar's already precarious economic situation, with 80% of its population living below the poverty line. This marks the third military power transition for the nation and fits a broader pattern of military takeovers across former French African colonies. Such regional instability, combined with domestic political uncertainty, significantly elevates the overall investment risk profile for the country.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should immediately reassess their exposure to Malagasy assets due to heightened political instability and governance concerns, Closely monitor the new military government's policy announcements, particularly regarding economic reforms and the promised election timeline, as well as the ongoing international response, Evaluate potential contagion risks for investments in other emerging markets, especially within the broader African region, given the recurring trend of military takeovers.