Analysts Estimate Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is anticipated to report a substantial year-over-year decline for the June 2025 quarter, with consensus estimates at $0.28 EPS (-72.8%) and $6.48 billion revenue (-5.8%), despite a recent 4.32% upward revision in EPS estimates. While OXY has historically beaten consensus in the past four quarters, its current Zacks Earnings ESP of -3.84% and Zacks Rank #3 suggest it is unlikely to deliver an earnings beat in the upcoming August 6 report, potentially impacting near-term stock performance if results fall short.

Analysis

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is positioned for a significant year-over-year contraction in its upcoming June 2025 quarterly results, with consensus estimates projecting earnings of $0.28 per share, a 72.8% decline, and revenues of $6.48 billion, a 5.8% decrease. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 4.32% over the last 30 days, more recent analyst sentiment appears to have turned bearish. This is evidenced by a negative Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -3.84%, which indicates that the most recent estimates are lower than the broader consensus. This negative ESP, combined with a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), makes an earnings beat statistically challenging to predict, despite the company's strong history of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. The last reported quarter featured a significant +19.18% earnings surprise. This creates a conflicting picture where a strong track record of execution is pitted against deteriorating near-term expectations ahead of the August 6th earnings report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflicting signals between a history of earnings beats and a recent negative ESP, investors should anticipate heightened stock volatility around the August 6th earnings release.
• It is critical to look beyond the headline EPS and revenue numbers to management's guidance on the earnings call, as their commentary on business conditions will be the primary driver of the stock's direction post-announcement.
• Considering the -3.84% ESP and the significant expected earnings decline, investors with existing long positions may find it prudent to evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate potential downside risk from an earnings miss.
• The stock is not a compelling earnings-beat candidate based on the provided model, so initiating new bullish positions purely on the expectation of a positive surprise carries a high degree of risk.