Prediction: Joby Stock Will Trade at This Price in 2028

Joby Aviation is transitioning from a flight-test story to a revenue story, with Q4 2025 revenue of $30.84 million and 2026 guidance of $105 million to $115 million, while management and the article’s model point to a possible $20 share price by 2028. The bull case is driven by FAA certification, Dubai and U.S. commercial launch plans, and a modeled revenue ramp toward $458 million, but the stock remains volatile at $10, down 24.24% year to date and trading at 122x sales. Sentiment is tempered by insider selling and certification risk, though the article frames the setup as a high-risk, high-upside optionality play.

Analysis

The market is still treating JOBY like a binary certification option, but the Blade deal changes the path dependence: it creates a real utilization curve before mass eVTOL deployment, which should reduce the probability-weighted need for punitive equity raises. The second-order winner is the supply chain around avionics, batteries, and composite airframe components, because the commercial ramp can now be paced through a broader revenue base rather than waiting for perfect regulatory closure. That said, the stock’s very high duration makes it behave more like a long-end rate hedge than a transport equity, so any macro shock that lifts discount rates can compress multiple expansion faster than operating progress can offset it.

The key catalyst sequence matters more than the headline certification date. A clean path through FAA milestones is necessary, but the market will likely re-rate only when it sees evidence of conversion from press-event demand to repeatable route economics: higher aircraft utilization, measurable load factors, and gross margin inflection in the first two commercial corridors. The real tail risk is not just a slip in certification; it is a slip that coincides with another capital market window closing, forcing dilution into a weak tape and resetting the implied 2028 revenue bridge. In that scenario, the downside is less about missed timing and more about permanent impairment of the narrative premium.

Consensus seems to be underpricing how quickly “optionality” can become a financing advantage if management keeps avoiding large equity raises. A credible operating cadence in Dubai and U.S. launch sites would likely pull in strategic capital, infrastructure partners, and customer prepayments, all of which lower the cost of growth. The contrarian point is that the move may be underdone if investors are extrapolating today’s sales multiple onto a much larger 2028 base; if revenue scales into the low hundreds of millions, the current valuation framework becomes mathematically stale rather than merely optimistic.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy a small starter long in JOBY only on post-rally pullbacks below the 50-day moving average, with a 6-12 month horizon; the risk/reward improves if the market re-tests the name on rate fears rather than company-specific misses.
• Use JOBY call spreads for 2026-2028 upside exposure instead of outright equity; this captures certification and launch optionality while capping theta bleed if regulatory timing slips.
• Pair long JOBY against a basket of high-duration, pre-profit tech/EV names when rates are stable to lower; the thesis is that JOBY’s catalyst path is more tangible than other long-duration stories, so relative performance should improve on execution beats.
• Avoid adding ahead of any macro data that can reprice duration sharply higher; the stock’s beta makes it vulnerable to factor-driven drawdowns that can exceed company-specific upside in the near term.
• If FAA progress is delayed beyond the next expected milestone window, reduce exposure immediately rather than averaging down; the risk is not just a lower target multiple, but a renewed dilutive financing cycle.