XP Inc.A (XP) Meets Q3 Earnings Estimates

XP Inc. reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.45, in line with the Zacks consensus and up from $0.39 a year earlier, while revenue came in at $855.6m, a 9.9% year‑over‑year rise but 0.2% below estimates; the company has only topped EPS and revenue estimates once each over the past four quarters. Shares have outperformed this year, rising ~57.5% vs the S&P 500’s 14.5%, and near‑term price direction will likely hinge on management’s commentary and subsequent analyst estimate revisions; ahead of the print XP carried a favorable revisions trend and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with consensus next‑quarter EPS/revenue of $0.44/$888.5m and FY EPS/revenue of $1.74/$3.37bn.

Analysis

XP Inc. reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.45, matching the Zacks consensus and up from $0.39 a year earlier, with revenues of $855.57 million for the quarter ended September 2025, a 9.9% year-over-year increase but 0.2% below consensus. The results are adjusted for non-recurring items and represent only the second quarter in the last four where the company has topped either EPS or revenue consensus (one beat in four quarters).

Shares have outperformed materially this year, rising about 57.5% versus the S&P 500’s 14.5% gain, and the pre-release trend in analyst estimate revisions was favorable, underpinning a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The report flags that near-term price direction will largely depend on management’s commentary and subsequent estimate revisions rather than the modest beat/miss alone.

Consensus expectations heading into the next quarter call for $0.44 EPS on $888.52 million in revenues and $1.74 EPS on $3.37 billion for the fiscal year; these are the key figures to watch for revisions. Given the company’s limited track record of beating estimates recently and the revenue shortfall, upside appears contingent on convincing forward guidance and renewed positive revision momentum.

Investors should treat the print as information-light until the earnings call clarifies the outlook and monitor estimate trajectory closely before making material allocations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor management commentary on the earnings call and any explicit guidance changes before increasing exposure to XP, as near-term price action appears to hinge on forward-looking statements
• Track analyst estimate revisions against the next-quarter consensus of $0.44 EPS/$888.52M revenue and FY consensus of $1.74 EPS/$3.37B revenue as the primary signal for durable outperformance
• Given the 57.5% YTD rally but only one beat in the last four quarters and a slight revenue miss, consider maintaining or modestly trimming positions and size new buys cautiously
• If guidance and estimate revisions turn decisively positive, consider adding incrementally; if revisions go negative or commentary is weak, reduce exposure or employ protective hedges