AMD vs. APH: Which Tech Supply Chain Stock Is a Better Buy Now?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expanding its AI footprint with new Instinct MI350 GPUs and strong data center revenue ($3.24 billion in Q2 2025), while Amphenol (APH) is diversifying with new liquid cooling connectors for AI data centers and EV, driving significant order growth. Despite AMD's 35.5% year-to-date share gain, APH has outperformed with a 56.6% rise, attributed to its diversified portfolio and acquisition strategy. The analysis suggests Amphenol offers greater upside potential given its robust earnings growth (2025 EPS up 59.79% YoY) and more favorable valuation (5.83x P/S vs. AMD's 7.26x), contrasting with AMD's intense competition and regulatory challenges.

Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Amphenol (APH) represent distinct opportunities within the technology supply chain, with Amphenol currently demonstrating a more favorable risk-reward profile. While AMD is capitalizing on the secular growth in AI and data centers, evidenced by a 14.3% year-over-year increase in its Data Center revenue to $3.24 billion and the launch of its new Instinct MI350 GPUs, it faces significant headwinds. These include intense competition, particularly from NVIDIA, and regulatory pressures such as export controls on certain GPUs. In contrast, Amphenol has leveraged a diversified business model to achieve superior stock performance, with a 56.6% year-to-date gain compared to AMD's 35.5%. APH's strategy is supported by strong order growth, which jumped 36% year-over-year, and strategic product launches like its liquid cooling connectors targeting high-growth AI and EV markets. Financially, Amphenol's outlook appears stronger, with analysts forecasting a 59.79% year-over-year earnings increase for 2025 versus 19.03% for AMD, and its earnings consensus has been revised up by 12.2% in the last 30 days. Although both companies are considered overvalued, Amphenol trades at a more attractive forward price-to-sales multiple of 5.83x compared to AMD's 7.26x, reinforcing its relative appeal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given Amphenol's superior year-to-date performance, diversified end-market exposure, and significantly stronger projected earnings growth of 59.79% for 2025, investors may find it a more compelling investment than its direct peers in the tech supply chain.
• Investors in AMD should closely monitor competitive dynamics in the AI chip market and the impact of regulatory export controls, as these factors, combined with its high 7.26x forward P/S valuation, present notable risks to future performance.
• For relative value or pair-trading strategies, the fundamentals suggest a potential long position in Amphenol (APH) against a short position in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), based on APH's stronger earnings momentum and more favorable valuation.
• Despite strong fundamentals for both companies, the report's 'Value Score of F' for both stocks warrants caution, suggesting that positions should be managed with an awareness of potential valuation compression across the sector.