Soybean Starting Friday with Losses

Soybean futures slid again—front months down roughly $0.09–0.1375 on Thursday and another 1–3 cents in Friday AM trade—with nearby cash falling about $0.135 to $10.49¼ and open interest off 5,248 contracts as the market “sold the fact” despite incremental Chinese buying. USDA weekly export bookings totaled 919,447 mt (a three-week high but 8.6% below last year), soymeal sales were 328,300 mt, and daily USDA announcements added 462,000 mt to China for a weekly known total to China of 1.812 mmt; soy oil bookings were net reductions. The International Grains Council trimmed world soybean production by 2 mmt, raised consumption by 1 mmt and cut ending stocks by 2 mmt to 77 mmt—fundamentally tighter supplies are conflicting with short-term price pressure, leaving near-term volatility likely as the market weighs incremental Chinese demand against ongoing liquidation.

Analysis

Front-month soybean futures extended a pullback, dropping 9.00–13.75 cents on Thursday and an additional 1–3 cents in Friday AM trade; Jan ’26 soybeans closed at $11.225, nearby cash averaged $10.4925 (down $0.135), open interest fell by 5,248 contracts and soymeal and soyoil futures were weaker (soymeal down $1.50–$4.90, soyoil down 37–47 points). The market is exhibiting “sell the fact” behavior despite incremental demand signals as deferred contracts also eased 3–7.5 cents and the cash market weakened by 13.5 cents.

USDA weekly export bookings were 919,447 MT (a three-week high but 8.6% below year-ago), soymeal sales were 328,300 MT (upper end of estimates) and bean oil saw net reductions of 11,800 MT; separate USDA daily announcements added 462,000 MT sold to China, bringing known sales to China this week to 1.812 MMT. Incremental Chinese buying is material but has not yet reversed technical liquidation.

Fundamentals point to a tighter global balance: the International Grains Council trimmed world soybean production by 2 MMT, raised consumption by 1 MMT and cut ending stocks by 2 MMT to 77 MMT, which supports prices over the medium term. Near-term direction will hinge on follow-through Chinese purchases, weekly export flows and whether open interest contraction signals a sustained liquidation or short-covering ahead of potential demand-driven rallies; volatility is likely until demand and positioning confirm a trend.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or trim near-term long exposure after the recent string of front-month declines and the 5,248-contract drop in open interest, as technical liquidation is pressuring prices
• Wait for confirmation of sustained Chinese buying (follow-up USDA daily announcements and weekly export shipments) before adding fresh long positions, since current known sales to China total 1.812 MMT but have not staunched the selloff
• Use tight risk management on any reentries—establish stop-loss levels or size positions conservatively given short-term downside risk from continued liquidation despite IGC-driven fundamental tightening to 77 MMT ending stocks
• Monitor weekly export booking pace relative to estimates, daily USDA sales to China, and open interest trends; a continued decline in bookings or OI would argue for remaining defensive, whereas rising shipments and stabilizing OI would justify selective accumulation