Goldman Sachs flags two‑way risks to their 2026 oil price outlook

Goldman Sachs flagged both upside and downside risks to its 2026 Brent/WTI crude forecast of $83/$78 per barrel, citing uncertainty around Middle East developments and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The note highlights geopolitical risk as the key driver for crude pricing, but does not change the forecast itself. The message is cautious and may support near-term oil volatility rather than a decisive directional move.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs flagged both upside and downside risks to its 2026 Brent/WTI crude forecast of $83/$78 per barrel, citing uncertainty around Middle East developments and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The note highlights geopolitical risk as the key driver for crude pricing, but does not change the forecast itself. The message is cautious and may support near-term oil volatility rather than a decisive directional move.