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Peak Crude Oil? Quick Look At S&P 500 EPS Data

Energy Markets & PricesCommodities & Raw MaterialsMarket Technicals & FlowsInvestor Sentiment & PositioningInterest Rates & YieldsCredit & Bond Markets

Crude oil traded more than 3 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average as of Friday, March 6, signaling an extreme overbought technical condition. The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) was up +0.50% late Monday, March 9 with ~90 minutes left, a contrarian bond-buy signal that may indicate risk-off positioning. Together these technicals point to elevated volatility and a potential for mean reversion in oil and flows into long-duration Treasuries.

Analysis

Crude oil traded more than 3 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average as of Friday, March 6, signaling an extreme overbought technical condition. The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) was up +0.50% late Monday, March 9 with ~90 minutes left, a contrarian bond-buy signal that may indicate risk-off positioning. Together these technicals point to elevated volatility and a potential for mean reversion in oil and flows into long-duration Treasuries.

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