CIBC’s chief market technician Sid Mokhtari reveals his top 10 stock picks for May

CIBC technician Sid Mokhtari’s TSX top-picks basket rose 8.53% last month, outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite by 4.88 percentage points, and is up 12.75% in the first four months of 2026 versus 7.1% for the index. The portfolio has beaten the TSX for four straight calendar years, including a 51.3% gain in 2025 versus 28.3% for the benchmark. For May, the model is concentrated in energy and financials, with names including Cenovus, Keyera, Whitecap, BMO, Manulife and Power Corp.

Analysis

The key signal here is not the absolute return profile, but the factor regime: a TSX basket that is systematically leaning into quality, value, cash flow and yield should continue to outperform if breadth remains narrow and macro uncertainty keeps investors paying up for balance-sheet durability. That setup is especially constructive for Canadian financials and select energy midstream/producer names because they combine defensiveness with operating leverage to a stable-to-firm commodity backdrop, while avoiding the duration sensitivity that still hangs over higher-multiple growth stocks.

The second-order effect is that the model’s May positioning looks like a barbell on economic dispersion rather than a simple cyclical bet. Energy and materials can work if crude and industrial activity stay resilient, but the more interesting upside may come from financials and REITs if the market starts rewarding capital return and book value resilience over pure earnings momentum. That creates a potential relative-value spread versus sectors that depend on multiple expansion; if rates stop falling, the market could continue rotating toward the exact factors this basket favors.

The main risk is a sharp reversal in breadth: if the market broadens into lower-quality beta or AI-linked US growth, this factor mix can lag even if the index holds up. On a shorter horizon, the biggest vulnerability is a commodity pullback that hits the energy sleeve first and then spills into sentiment around cyclical Canada. Over a 1-3 month window, however, the better asymmetry is that the portfolio is built to benefit from “good enough” macro rather than needing a perfect economic acceleration.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long BMO and POW.TO versus a short in a high-multiple Canadian cyclically exposed basket over the next 4-8 weeks; the pair should benefit if the market continues paying for quality, yield and capital return rather than earnings momentum.
• Add CVE and KEY.TO on weakness, but size them as tactical longs with a 1-2 month horizon; the upside is stronger if crude stays stable, while the main risk is a fast reversal in energy sentiment that would hit these names before the broader TSX.
• Use QSR as a lower-beta carry exposure rather than a momentum trade; best entry is on any post-rally pullback, with the thesis that defensives should catch bids if breadth narrows again.
• Avoid chasing MGA here; the setup implies less immediate factor support versus the financials/energy names, so it is a lower-conviction long until the market broadens beyond value and yield.
• For hedged exposure, pair long NA.TO against short a duration-sensitive Canadian growth proxy for 1-3 months; the risk/reward improves if rates stay sticky and investors keep favoring cash-flow visibility.