SpaceX's IPO, Nvidia earnings, Bezos on the AI bubble and more in Morning Squawk

Nvidia beat Q1 expectations with revenue up 85% and data center sales reaching $75.2 billion, but shares were slightly lower premarket as the company flagged potential uncertainty from the Iran conflict and China export restrictions. SpaceX filed for a Nasdaq listing under SPCX, while Walmart guided softer for the year and Intuit said it will cut 17% of its workforce, with $300 million to $340 million of restructuring charges. Fed minutes signaled a higher-for-longer rate backdrop if oil-driven inflation persists, adding to market caution.

Analysis

The market is starting to price a more important split inside AI beneficiaries: capex intensity is still accelerating, but monetization is becoming more selective. Nvidia remains the obvious economic toll collector, yet the post-earnings fade suggests investors are no longer paying up for merely meeting the biggest number in semis; they want evidence that supply growth, customer concentration, and China leakage do not compress margins over the next 2-3 quarters. The buyback helps on the downside, but it also signals management sees equity as a better use of cash than incremental buildout, which can be read as a subtle deceleration signal for the broader AI hardware stack.

The deeper implication is that the AI trade is rotating from “picks and shovels” into infrastructure enablers with more durable cash conversion. SpaceX’s filing and the reported OpenAI filing risk pulling speculative capital further upstream into private AI/space optionality, which can create a near-term valuation overhang for listed software and internet names as public-market investors re-anchor discount rates and growth assumptions. If private market exuberance keeps absorbing attention, public comps may trade less on TAM narratives and more on proof of margin expansion and free cash flow discipline.

On the consumer side, Walmart’s softer outlook is the cleaner read-through: the low-income shopper is losing the benefit of tax refunds and is becoming more energy-sensitive, which is a negative for broadline retail but also a tailwind for discounters and private-label-heavy names with better inventory flexibility. Intuit’s restructuring is less about near-term cost savings than about a belief that productivity gains from AI will permanently compress headcount needs across white-collar SaaS; that is constructive for margins long term, but the market is likely to punish any company where AI adoption is being funded via layoffs rather than revenue acceleration. The Fed minutes and oil move keep the rate path asymmetric: if geopolitics keep energy sticky, long-duration assets stay vulnerable even if the base case remains rate cuts later this year.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Fade near-term NVDA upside with a tactical collar or put spread into the next 2-4 weeks; upside is increasingly capped by elevated expectations, while downside is protected by buyback support and secular demand. Risk/reward favors monetizing volatility rather than outright shorting.
• Go long AMZN vs short WMT for 1-3 months as a consumer-discretionary quality pair: Amazon should be less exposed to gas-driven basket pressure and has more operating leverage if spending shifts online; WMT’s guide implies margin pressure before volumes reaccelerate.
• Buy INTU downside via put spreads over the next 30-45 days if the market starts treating the restructuring as a growth scare rather than a margin event. The move looks mechanically sharp and may over-discount long-term earnings power, but near-term multiple compression can extend if peers announce similar AI-related restructuring.
• Use NDAQ as a relative long vs high-duration software if IPO reopening gathers momentum over the next 2-6 months. The optionality from a private-market-to-public-market cycle is underappreciated, and exchange/market-data leverage to issuance is cleaner than most AI-exposed software names.
• Maintain a defensive tilt in duration-sensitive growth until oil/geopolitical risk clears; if 30-year yields retest highs, trim high-multiple software and add to cash-generative mega-cap tech with buyback support. The setup favors balance-sheet strength over narrative-only growth.