Buy this 'best-in-class' auto repair stock that can surge more than 30%, Goldman says

Goldman Sachs upgraded Valvoline to a buy rating with a price target of $45, representing a 31% upside, citing the company's strong position in a fragmented market with non-discretionary demand. Analyst Mark Jordan believes Valvoline's refranchising efforts and the Breeze Autocare acquisition will drive significant value creation, while the company's long-term growth outlook remains attractive despite a 5% stock decline year-to-date.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs has upgraded Valvoline (VVV) to "buy" from "neutral," issuing a $45 price target that suggests approximately 31% upside from its previous closing price. Analyst Mark Jordan posits Valvoline as a "best-in-class operator" thriving in a highly fragmented automotive maintenance sector, which benefits from non-discretionary, needs-based consumer demand and is well-positioned within the current macroeconomic environment. Key to this upgraded outlook is the belief that Valvoline's refranchising activities will unlock significant shareholder value, currently underappreciated by the market. Furthermore, the acquisition of Breeze Autocare is highlighted as a potential value driver, with projections suggesting a five-times purchase multiple over three years if Breeze operations achieve metrics comparable to mature Valvoline stores. Jordan also emphasizes Valvoline's limited exposure to tariffs and an "attractive" and "intact" long-term growth outlook, despite the stock having declined approximately 5% year-to-date in 2025. This positive assessment is largely in line with broader analyst sentiment, as LSEG data indicates most analysts maintain a buy-equivalent rating, and Jordan's target is near the top of Wall Street estimates. The stock saw a modest 0.6% increase in pre-market trading following the upgrade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the potential undervaluation of Valvoline, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs, particularly in light of its refranchising strategy and the accretive potential of the Breeze Autocare acquisition.
• Monitor Valvoline's upcoming quarterly reports for evidence of mitigating factors to current negative narratives and progress on integrating Breeze Autocare, as these are key catalysts for realizing the projected upside.
• Given the non-discretionary nature of its services and the analyst's view of an intact long-term growth outlook, the recent stock underperformance could present a buying opportunity, contingent on forthcoming positive company developments.