Destiny 2 Player Count Has Now Fallen Below Curse of Osiris Lows, the Point Where Bungie Once Said It Was Weeks Away From Shutting the Game Down Entirely

Bungie's live-service title, Destiny 2, is experiencing its lowest player engagement ever, with daily active users falling below the critical 2018 levels that the studio previously indicated were "five weeks away from shutting down" the game. Current player counts are in the mid-300,000s, down from mid-400,000s during its prior low point, and new player acquisition has stagnated since 2022-23. This significant decline for a major franchise under Sony raises concerns about its long-term revenue potential, particularly as Bungie pivots focus to its upcoming live-service title, Marathon, whose success is now critical for both the studio and Sony's broader live-service strategy following recent setbacks.

Analysis

Destiny 2's total player count has fallen to its lowest point ever, dropping below the critical 2018 levels that Bungie's studio head, Justin Truman, cited as being "five weeks away from shuttering Destiny 2." Current daily online player numbers are hovering in the mid-300,000 range, with some days below 300,000, significantly lower than the mid-to-high 400,000s observed during the 2018 low point post-Curse of Osiris. This decline is evident across all platforms, not just Steam, where recent reviews are "Mostly Negative" and player counts hit a record low of 17,400.

New player acquisition for Destiny 2 has stagnated since 2022-23, showing little growth even with major expansions, indicating a long-term problem rather than a short-term dip. While the game still attracts new players (e.g., 4,000-7,000 daily in late Sept-Oct 2025), its inability to retain them contributes directly to the overall declining active player base.

Despite the severe player decline, a complete shutdown by Sony (SONY) is unlikely given Destiny's historical success as a live-service franchise. However, Bungie's primary focus has shifted to its upcoming extraction shooter, Marathon, which is critical for both the studio's future and Sony's broader live-service strategy following recent setbacks. The success of Marathon is paramount, as its failure could exacerbate existing challenges for Bungie and Sony's gaming division.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor SONY's live-service strategy and the development progress and initial reception of Bungie's new title, Marathon, as its success is crucial for SONY's broader gaming ambitions and could offset declining revenue from Destiny 2.
• Assess the long-term viability and revenue potential of live-service games with aging player bases within investment portfolios, as Destiny 2's struggles highlight challenges in sustaining engagement and new player acquisition in mature titles.
• Evaluate SONY's gaming division revenue streams for diversification beyond established franchises, as the significant reliance on a declining Destiny 2 player base underscores the need for successful new IP launches to maintain growth.