Monday.com Gears Up For Q2 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

monday.com (NASDAQ:MNDY) is set to report Q2 results before the open on Aug. 10, with analysts targeting EPS of $1.11 (vs. $1.09 a year ago) and revenue of $355.53M (vs. $299.01M last year). The company previously announced a ~20% workforce reduction as part of an AI-focused work platform restructuring, alongside a higher full-year operating margin outlook. Shares rose 6.4% to $93.13 ahead of the report, but the layoffs keep expectations cautious.

Analysis

Management is trying to convert MNDY from a growth-at-any-cost story into an efficiency story, but that usually helps the multiple only if forward billings and retention hold up. In software, aggressive headcount cuts can boost margin for 2-3 quarters while quietly degrading product velocity, implementation support, and enterprise renewal quality; the market will likely look through headline EPS and focus on whether the sales engine still compounds after the restructuring.

The second-order read-through is mixed for the SaaS complex. If MNDY is rewarded, it becomes a template for TEAM, WDAY, and other workflow names to prove they can fund AI investments without sacrificing operating discipline; if punished, it reinforces the idea that "AI-focused" often means cost takeout rather than durable monetization. The key falsifier over the next 1-3 months is not the first print itself but cRPO/billings, net retention, and any commentary on deal cycles into the back half of the year; a margin beat with softer demand is usually a sell-the-rip setup. Over 6-18 months, the risk is that a slimmer sales force caps enterprise penetration just as competitors use AI bundles to widen product breadth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No pre-earnings outright long: the setup is too dependent on forward commentary, not the quarter itself. Wait for the print and first-hour reaction before adding exposure.
• If MNDY gaps up >8% on margin improvement without clear cRPO/NRR acceleration, fade the move with a short or 1-2 month put spread. Risk/reward skews to 2:1 downside if guidance is merely maintained; invalidate if revenue guide and billings both re-accelerate.
• If the company proves both growth and margin discipline, consider a relative long MNDY / short ASAN pair for 1-3 months. The thesis is that MNDY’s efficiency reset is more credible and should compress the quality gap versus weaker workflow peers.
• Set an alert on forward revenue growth and billings rather than EPS. A second consecutive quarter of margin gains driven primarily by headcount reduction, with no demand inflection, should be treated as a tactical exit signal.