Palantir falls premarket; ServiceNow, PayPal rise By Investing.com

U.S. stock futures rose 0.1% to 0.5% as investors weighed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions against a strong earnings season. Pre-market movers were driven by earnings beats and guidance updates, including Palantir’s revenue forecast raise despite higher 2026 expense expectations, PayPal’s better-than-expected first-quarter results, and ServiceNow’s long-term subscription revenue target above $30 billion by 2030. Notable gainers also included Pfizer, Intel, KKR, GlobalFoundries, Coinbase, Cytokinetics and Pinterest, while Duolingo, Kosmos Energy and On Semiconductor fell on softer outlooks or weaker revenue.

Analysis

This tape is still rewarding cash-generative software and select fintech, but the market is clearly discriminating between “good quarter” and “credible multi-year operating leverage.” The most important signal is that investors are willing to pay up for durable consumption and workflow franchises when guidance implies monetization can compound without forcing near-term margin sacrifice; that supports NOW, PYPL, and to a lesser extent PINS. By contrast, names where management telegraphs higher expense intensity or slower growth inflection are being treated as lower-quality earnings, even if the current print is clean.

The second-order read-through is to AI/enterprise software budgets: the market is not buying every AI narrative equally. PLTR’s reaction suggests that growth alone is not enough if the cost structure looks like it will consume future operating leverage, which pressures the broader cohort of premium-priced software compounders. That creates a relative-value opportunity against lower-multiple, execution-improving platforms that can convert usage into revenue without needing a perfect macro backdrop.

In semis, the reaction set is more nuanced than a simple AI beta trade. GFS strength implies investors are starting to favor capacity and visibility over pure GPU beta, while INTC’s move on foundry chatter is more about optionality than near-term fundamentals. AMD is likely the cleaner event-driven catalyst, but the setup also leaves ON vulnerable if management commentary confirms that revenue beats are not translating into margin expansion; that is the classic “top-line good, P&L bad” setup that can underperform for several quarters.

Contrarianly, the most interesting underreaction may be PYPL and COIN. PYPL is increasingly a cash-flow repair story rather than a growth story, and any stabilization in consumer spending can re-rate the multiple more than the market expects over the next 3-6 months. COIN’s workforce action is being read as discipline, but the bigger driver is still crypto volatility; if spot weakens or volumes cool, the cost-cutting narrative will not protect earnings enough to offset operating leverage.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NOW / short PLTR for 1-3 months: buy the software compounder with visible subscription leverage and fade the name where expense growth is likely to cap future margin expansion. Risk/reward favors the pair if the market continues to punish premium multiples that do not translate into operating leverage.
• Long PYPL into the next 1-2 earnings windows: use the post-print optimism to build a position if the stock holds its gap, targeting a 10-15% rerating as investors start to price a multi-quarter stabilization rather than decline. Stop if transaction/consumer signals roll over.
• Short ON on any strength over the next 2-6 weeks: this is a margin-quality short, not a revenue short. If management confirms limited gross-margin expansion, the stock can de-rate 8-12% even without a demand miss.
• Trade GFS vs AMD as a relative-value pair for 1-2 quarters: long GFS / short AMD into earnings volatility if you want lower-beta semis with better visibility. The thesis is that capacity/wafer demand can outperform pure AI-chip beta if customers keep diversifying supply.
• Sell upside calls on COIN or use a defined-risk call spread into crypto volatility: the workforce cut supports near-term sentiment, but the earnings leverage cuts both ways. This works best if you expect choppy BTC action over the next 30-60 days.