2 Space Stocks to Buy Before the SpaceX IPO on June 12

PwC projects the space economy could reach $2 trillion by 2040, supporting a constructive long-term backdrop for space stocks. AST SpaceMobile highlighted plans to launch three satellites in June and still targets 45 satellites by year-end despite a recent Blue Origin setback, while Intuitive Machines reported $186.7 million in Q1 revenue and a backlog above $1.1 billion after securing $429 million in new contracts and a $180 million NASA CLPS award. The article is bullish on the sector but is mainly opinion-driven and unlikely to move the broader market materially.

Analysis

The investable split here is between “proof of access” and “proof of economics.” ASTS is still primarily a launch-execution trade: the market will reward satellite count milestones far more than subscriber headlines over the next 6-12 months, because coverage durability and capital efficiency remain unproven at scale. The setback with launch logistics raises a second-order issue: every missed or degraded deployment increases dependence on a small set of launch providers, which can compress the path to revenue while forcing a higher working-capital burn profile than bulls are modeling.

LUNR is the cleaner near-term institutional beneficiary because it is converting geopolitics into contracted backlog, not optionality. The key underappreciated point is that defense-driven lunar/space budgets tend to be sticky once mission architectures are set, so backlog visibility can support multiple expansion even if headline growth decelerates later this year. That said, the stock is now transitioning from “contract win” to “execution and margin delivery,” and any slippage in delivery timing or gross margin mix could create a sharp de-rating because expectations have moved ahead of the operating cadence.

The carriers named in the article are not the trade, but they are relevant as distribution enablers and potential pricing gatekeepers. If direct-to-device connectivity scales, it is more likely to be additive to premium plans and rural/defense coverage than a broad ARPU disruptor, which limits the downside to T/VZ/VOD but also caps the upside. The bigger contrarian miss is that the space-equity basket is now being traded as if all of these business models benefit equally from the sector narrative; in reality, launch access and contract conversion are the scarce resources, not market enthusiasm.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long LUNR vs short ASTS for the next 3-6 months: pair the higher-visibility backlog monetization story against the launch-execution risk premium; target a relative-value move if ASTS misses the next satellite cadence.
• Buy ASTS only on launch-confirmation pullbacks, not anticipation: use staged entries into the next 1-2 scheduled launches; upside is meaningful if deployment cadence holds, but the trade should be sized for binary operational risk.
• For LUNR, own common or a call spread into the next 1-2 earnings prints: the setup is favorable if backlog conversion remains near the implied 60% annual conversion rate, but trim if margins fail to inflect with revenue.
• Avoid chasing T/VZ/VOD as “space winners”; if anything, use them as a defensive hedge against the space basket by shorting any overbought telecom strength that gets misread as a secular winner from direct-to-device adoption.
• If you want sector exposure, prefer a basket long LUNR and a smaller ASTS starter, with a hard stop on ASTS if launch cadence slips by more than one month; the key risk is not valuation, it is schedule credibility.