2 Potential Stock Splits to Watch for in 2026

While stock splits do not alter fundamentals, ASML and Eli Lilly have reached price points and growth trajectories that make splits plausible and materially relevant for market access and demand: ASML, trading above $1,100 and up roughly 54% over the past year, is being guided by management to sustain strong growth into 2026 with sell-side forecasts calling for about 14.8% sales growth and 28.3% earnings growth this year; Eli Lilly, now trading above $1,000 with a roughly $1 trillion market cap, has captured roughly 58% of the U.S. incretin analog market thanks to Zepbound and carries a rich forward P/E of ~27 amid analyst expectations for earnings growth north of 35% next year — factors that could both justify a split to broaden retail participation while leaving fundamental upside intact, albeit against a high valuation backdrop.

Analysis

The article flags stock splits as demand catalysts rather than fundamental drivers and identifies ASML and Eli Lilly as plausible split candidates based on price momentum and growth. ASML shares have risen over 54% in the past year to trade above $1,100, the company hasn’t split in nearly two decades, management is guiding 2026 growth at least as strong as 2025, and sell-side forecasts call for ~14.8% sales growth and ~28.3% earnings growth this year. Eli Lilly’s shares have climbed above $1,000 to a roughly $1 trillion market cap, it controls about 58% of the U.S. incretin analog market thanks to Zepbound, hasn’t split since 1997, and analysts expect earnings growth north of 35% next year while the stock trades at a forward P/E near 27.

A split would make both names more accessible to retail investors and could incrementally increase demand and liquidity, but would not change cash flows or fundamentals. The article’s tone is moderately positive (per the supplied sentiment metrics) and notes Motley Fool’s disclosed ownership in ASML, which suggests potential bias in coverage; market-impact metrics imply modest broader-market effects. Given Lilly’s rich valuation and concentration of optimism around Zepbound, upside appears tied to continued product performance and earnings delivery, while ASML’s upside is coupled to secular AI/semicapex cycles and management guidance being met.

Investors should treat a split as a liquidity and sentiment catalyst rather than a valuation justification, monitor official split or guidance updates and sell-side revisions, and weigh position sizing carefully against each company’s valuation and execution risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider selective exposure to ASML given 54% one-year appreciation and analyst forecasts for mid-teens sales and high-teens to high-20s earnings growth, but size initial positions conservatively and prefer adding on defined dips or after a confirmed split announcement
• Approach Eli Lilly with a phased-buy or partial profit-taking plan: the company’s ~58% U.S. incretin share and >35% expected earnings growth justify attention, yet the forward P/E of ~27 and concentration of optimism around Zepbound increase valuation risk
• Monitor catalysts closely—official split filings, 2026 guidance cadence, and sell-side estimate revisions—and use those events to reprice risk or take profits, as splits tend to amplify retail-driven volatility despite unchanged fundamentals
• Mitigate risk via position limits or hedges (e.g., protective puts or collars) ahead of potential retail-driven repricings, and account for coverage bias noted in the article disclosure when sizing new positions