When the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, this will be crucial to global oil markets

The key event is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with no known reopening date; rebuilding energy infrastructure and restoring Middle East production are now the primary drivers for the global oil market. The uncertainty around supply restoration implies continued risk of tighter physical oil markets, price upside and elevated volatility until production and export routes are reestablished.

Analysis

The key event is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with no known reopening date; rebuilding energy infrastructure and restoring Middle East production are now the primary drivers for the global oil market. The uncertainty around supply restoration implies continued risk of tighter physical oil markets, price upside and elevated volatility until production and export routes are reestablished.