Wall Street bonuses seen flat to slightly positive in 2026 as Iran war and private credit turmoil hurt

Wall Street bonuses are expected to be flat to slightly positive in 2026, but Johnson Associates flagged geopolitical tensions from the Iran war and private credit turmoil as headwinds. The consultancy said these risks could slow the economy and damp incentive compensation, pointing to a cautious outlook for financial-sector pay rather than a strong rebound.

Analysis

Wall Street bonuses are expected to be flat to slightly positive in 2026, but Johnson Associates flagged geopolitical tensions from the Iran war and private credit turmoil as headwinds. The consultancy said these risks could slow the economy and damp incentive compensation, pointing to a cautious outlook for financial-sector pay rather than a strong rebound.