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The 10-year Treasury is near 4.4%, the Fed funds upper bound is just under 4%, and the 2s10s Treasury spread has compressed to about 50 bps. The message is a still-restrictive but somewhat flattening rate backdrop, with markets focused on the relative stance of monetary policy versus longer-term yields.

Analysis

The 10-year Treasury is near 4.4%, the Fed funds upper bound is just under 4%, and the 2s10s Treasury spread has compressed to about 50 bps. The message is a still-restrictive but somewhat flattening rate backdrop, with markets focused on the relative stance of monetary policy versus longer-term yields.