Rise in AUM Balance Likely to Support Ameriprise's Q3 Earnings

Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is projected to report strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, with revenues and earnings expected to rise year-over-year, largely propelled by a 7.4% increase in Assets Under Management and Administration (AUM/AUA) to an estimated $1.62 trillion, driven by solid inflows. While key revenue streams like management and financial advice fees are forecast to grow, increased expenses from technology upgrades and new hires may partially temper gains. Analysts anticipate a high probability of AMP surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.60 EPS, which would represent an 8.7% year-over-year increase, supported by a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #2.

Analysis

Ameriprise Financial (AMP) is poised for a strong third-quarter 2025 earnings report on October 30, with both revenues and earnings projected to increase year-over-year. This positive outlook is primarily driven by an anticipated 7.4% rise in total Assets Under Management and Administration (AUM/AUA) to $1.62 trillion, fueled by robust inflows. Management and financial advice fees, constituting over 60% of net revenues, are expected to grow 7% to $2.75 billion, further bolstering top-line performance.

While key revenue streams show strength, potential headwinds include a projected 10.7% year-over-year decline in net investment income to $834 million and an 8.6% fall in premiums, policy, and contract charges. Additionally, despite cost management initiatives, overall operating expenses are estimated at $3.27 billion, elevated by technology upgrades and new hirings, which could partially offset revenue gains.

The quantitative model indicates a high probability of AMP surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.60 per share, representing an 8.7% year-over-year increase. This confidence stems from a positive Earnings ESP of +2.55% and a favorable Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), building on a history of beating consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 2.30%. Total sales are also forecast to rise 4% year-over-year to $4.52 billion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Ameriprise's Q3 2025 earnings report on October 30, given the strong probability of an earnings beat indicated by its positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #2.
• The projected 7.4% growth in AUM/AUA and 7% rise in core management fees are key drivers to watch, signaling continued strength in its wealth management business.
• While overall revenue and earnings growth are expected, investors should scrutinize the impact of elevated operating expenses from technology and hiring, as well as the anticipated decline in net investment income, on profit margins.