First Camp Group Interim Report for the second quarter of 2026

First Camp reported Q2 total revenue of SEK 496.8 million (vs. SEK 345.8 million a year earlier), with pro forma revenue up 6% YoY. Despite the top-line growth, pro forma adjusted EBITDA fell to SEK 68.6 million (from SEK 71.0 million) and EBIT declined to SEK 9.3 million (from SEK 13.1 million). Operating cash flow improved to SEK 202.3 million (from SEK 144.8 million), partially offsetting weaker profitability.

Analysis

The important signal is not the revenue growth; it is that scale is not yet translating into operating leverage. When acquisition-driven expansion outpaces organic growth and margins still soften in a peak quarter, the market should question whether this is a true compounding platform or just an expensive roll-up with integration drag. That typically means lower multiple durability: investors pay for visible same-site growth and margin expansion, not just top-line accretion.

The second-order effect is on financing optionality. Leisure assets with seasonal cash generation can look healthier than they are if operating cash flow is flattered by timing of customer prepayments and working-capital swings; that matters most if the company is using debt to fund acquisitions. If leverage is rising, even a small EBITDA miss can push refinancing terms higher and force a de-rating well before any covenant stress shows up.

Contrarianly, the consensus may be too quick to dismiss the cash flow print as evidence of underlying strength. The better question is whether that cash is recurring or simply seasonal absorption; if organic revenue stays mid-single digit while adjusted EBITDA keeps lagging, the thesis shifts from "underappreciated growth" to "capital-intense capacity build with mediocre returns." That is a months-to-quarters story, not a one-day headline trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No direct single-name trade here; avoid paying up for acquisition-led leisure platforms until the next filing shows same-site growth translating into margin expansion.
• If you have a tradeable European travel/leisure basket, use this as a 1-3 month short-on-rallies idea versus asset-light consumer names; the risk/reward favors modest downside if margins keep lagging, but not a crash scenario.
• Set a watch item for the next update on organic revenue, net debt/EBITDA, and interest coverage; if organic growth stays around mid-single digits while EBITDA remains flat-to-down, expect 6-18 month multiple compression.
• Treat the strong operating cash flow as provisional, not proof of structural improvement; fade any long thesis unless the company can show that cash generation persists after seasonal working-capital reversal.