Waste Management (WM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Waste Management (WM) is scheduled to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 28, with consensus estimates forecasting EPS of $1.89 (+3.9% YoY) and revenues of $6.34 billion (+17.4% YoY). Despite a recent 0.69% downward revision to the consensus EPS, WM's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.25% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 suggests a high likelihood of an earnings beat, which could influence short-term stock price movement. The actual results relative to these estimates and management's commentary will be key determinants for investors.

Analysis

Waste Management (WM) heads into its Q2 2025 earnings announcement on July 28 with strong indicators of a potential earnings per share (EPS) beat. The consensus forecast calls for an EPS of $1.89, representing a 3.9% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $6.34 billion, a significant 17.4% rise from the year-ago quarter. Although the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.69% in the last 30 days, a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.25% suggests that the most recent analyst estimates are more optimistic. This factor, combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), creates a statistical model that predicts an earnings beat with a probability of nearly 70%. This contrasts with industry peer H20, which has a negative ESP and less certain prospects. While WM has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters, the current quantitative signals favor a positive surprise. The market's sustained reaction will ultimately depend on the magnitude of the beat and, more importantly, management's forward-looking guidance discussed during the earnings call.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the high statistical probability of an EPS beat based on the positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3, investors may consider holding or initiating long positions ahead of the report, anticipating a potential positive price reaction.
• Traders should monitor for post-announcement volatility, as a headline beat may already be partially priced in; the stock's sustained trajectory will likely be dictated by the quality of the forward guidance and management's commentary.
• Scrutinize the details of the revenue growth, which at a forecasted 17.4% significantly outpaces the 3.9% EPS growth, to understand margin dynamics and the sustainability of the company's profitability.