Soybean futures were slightly firmer Tuesday after Monday's 4–5¢ losses as the market 'sold the fact' on earlier Chinese buying, with open interest down ~15,500 contracts suggesting long liquidation and the national cash bean at about $10.01/bu. Export inspections showed weekly shipments of 795,661 mt (down 22% w/w and 59.6% y/y), leaving marketing-year shipments at 13.702 MMT (-46.3% y/y), even as USDA’s backlogged update recorded 2.232 MMT of sales in the Nov. 20 week (2.14 MMT to China) and China’s state stockpiler sold 323k mt with a 550k mt auction planned. Market fundamentals are mixed: NOPA crushing remained strong in November at 216.04 million bu (up 11.8% y/y) supporting meal demand, but soybean oil stocks are elevated (+16% m/m, +39.6% y/y at 1.513 bln lbs), managed money trimmed longs (CFTC net long down ~15,300 contracts to 214,289), and a delayed EPA 2026 RVO adds policy uncertainty that could cap upside for oilseed values.
Soybean futures opened marginally firmer Tuesday after Monday’s 4–5¢ losses, with the January contract quoted at $10.71 3/4 (down 5¢ at close) but showing a small intraday uptick of 3/4¢; the national average nearby cash bean was $10.01, down 4 1/2¢. Open interest declined roughly 15,485 contracts and CFTC data show managed money trimmed about 15,336 contracts to a net long of 214,289 as of Nov. 25, consistent with long liquidation. Export and sales data present a mixed demand picture: weekly export inspections were 795,661 MT (29.24 mbu), down 22.4% w/w and 59.6% y/y, leaving marketing-year shipments at 13.702 MMT (503.47 mbu), a 46.3% decline yr/yr, while USDA’s backlogged report recorded 2.232 MMT of sales in the Nov. 20 week including 2.14 MMT to China and known sales to China now 4.2 MMT. China’s state stockpiler sold 323,000 MT and has a 550,000 MT auction scheduled, indicating episodic demand flows. Supply-side and policy dynamics create internal divergence: NOPA reported November crush at 216.04 million bushels (a record for the month and +11.83% y/y) supporting meal demand, but soybean oil stocks rose to 1.513 billion lbs (+15.95% m/m, +39.58% y/y), weighing on oil values; soymeal futures traded up while soy oil futures were down. Reuters’ note that EPA’s 2026 RVO finalization likely won’t occur until next year introduces regulatory uncertainty that could cap upside for oilseeds in the near term.
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Overall Sentiment
moderately negative
Sentiment Score
-0.45
