Prediction: This Is What Bitcoin Will Do in the Next Bull Market

Bitcoin remains in a bear phase since October 2025, but the article argues a supply-driven rebound is underway as long-term holders rise to 16.7M BTC held for 155+ days (vs 13.7M at the same point in 2020) and the April 2028 halving should cut new issuance by ~50% again. It flags a key downside risk: quantum computing could, in theory, break Bitcoin’s encryption within ~5 years, potentially forcing disruptive security upgrades and causing severe drawdowns. The author expects the next bull market to begin after September 2026 and peak in 2029, with speculative peak-price range of $300,000–$800,000 per BTC.

Analysis

The investable takeaway is not that Bitcoin is due for an imminent bid, but that the next durable cycle will likely be driven by supply concentration plus a lower-cost-of-capital regime. That matters most for crypto-adjacent balance sheets: the more crowded the long-duration BTC thesis becomes, the more fragile treasury-heavy holders and high-leverage “digital asset” proxies become when liquidity tightens. Near term, this is a positioning story, not a fundamental re-rating event.

The quantum angle is a real long-dated tail risk because it attacks the core assumption behind passive BTC custody: irreversibility of ownership. Even if the probability is low over the next 12-18 months, the market can start pricing a higher required return on BTC if credible progress in post-quantum computing accelerates, which would compress valuation multiples for any vehicle whose pitch is “code is law.” The second-order winner is not obvious from the article: companies selling quantum-specific compute/security narratives can gain attention, but only if they can convert hype into enterprise spend.

My base case is that the market underestimates how slowly Bitcoin’s next advance can begin once real rates stay restrictive, while overestimating the near-term monetization of quantum risk. The more likely catalyst path is a later-cycle liquidity turn, not a headline-driven squeeze. Falsifier for the bearish quantum-overhang thesis: no meaningful progress in quantum error correction or post-quantum migration standards over the next 12-24 months; falsifier for the bullish BTC-cycle thesis: a continued absence of easier liquidity and persistent outflows from risk assets into 2026.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate BTC-linked risk-on trade here; wait for a confirmed liquidity pivot before adding crypto beta. Use a 1-3 month watchlist trigger on real rates and Fed easing expectations rather than the article’s cycle timing.
• Set an alert on QUBT for narrative-driven spikes; if the name gaps up on quantum headlines, consider fading strength with a tight stop, since this thesis is sentiment-sensitive and the commercialization path is still distant.
• For portfolios already long crypto beta, reduce exposure to the most leverage-sensitive proxies on any liquidity tightening signal; the first-order pain will likely show up in treasury-heavy or high-duration vehicles before spot Bitcoin itself.
• If quantum security becomes a sustained market theme, look for a basket long in post-quantum cybersecurity infrastructure and short legacy crypto-adjacent speculation; the relative spread could outperform over 6-18 months if enterprise migration budgets accelerate.
• Avoid treating the Bitcoin cycle call as tradable on a weeks horizon; the edge, if any, is in monitoring catalyst drift into 2026-2029, not front-running a speculative bull-market calendar.