Dan Ives goes bullish on SpaceX, touting reusable, super heavy Starship rocket as linchpin for success

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $190 12-month price target, implying >11% upside from Tuesday’s close. The thesis centers on Starship reusability as the key to lowering launch costs and enabling more Starlink satellite capacity, supporting long-run profitability despite reported $5B net losses in 2025. The stock was down ~5% to around $163 at the time of the report following volatility after its June 12 IPO.

Analysis

The real equity story is not launch revenue; it is whether reusable Starship turns SpaceX into a self-funding distribution network for Starlink and future compute capacity. If turnaround time and refurbishment cost fall enough, the company gets a flywheel: lower launch cost, more payload capacity per mission, faster satellite constellation buildout, and a widening cost gap versus any competitor that still prices on expendable launch economics. That is a structural moat expansion, not just a margin tailwind.

The market is likely underestimating how binary the next 1-3 months are. This kind of rerating depends on repeatability, not a single successful test: investors will care about consecutive flights, payload mass delivered, and whether reuse meaningfully improves cadence. Any slip in test cadence or evidence that refurbishment remains capital-intensive would hit the multiple quickly because the stock is being valued on a platform narrative, not on current earnings.

Contrarian view: the consensus is treating Starship reuse as if it is purely upside, but the bigger risk is that it becomes a capital sink before it becomes a cost engine. If the launch business stays strong but Starlink monetization or internal compute use lags, the market may eventually discount SPCX like a high-burn infrastructure company rather than an integrated monopoly. That would pressure the shares even if launch share remains dominant. The key falsifier is not market share; it is whether gross margin and free cash flow inflect within the next 2-4 quarters after launch cadence normalizes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate chase after a 1-day analyst-driven move; wait for the next two Starship test/turnaround data points before adding SPCX, because the stock will likely trade on execution confirmation rather than coverage initiation.
• If willing to own the binary, buy SPCX on post-event weakness around the next test window and use a 3-6 month horizon; thesis is a rerating on evidence of reusability, with downside if the program slips again or refurbishment proves costly.
• For a relative-value expression, consider long SPCX vs. a basket of launch-exposed peers such as RKLB and VSAT over 3-12 months; the trade is that reusable capacity compresses industry pricing while deepening SpaceX’s internal moat.
• Use call spreads rather than outright calls if positioning ahead of a known flight catalyst; the risk/reward is best if the market is underpricing a successful repeat flight, but premium should be capped given the binary technical risk.
• Set an alert on reuse metrics: turnaround days, number of satellites per flight, and any guidance on launch cadence or Starlink deployment cost; if those do not improve within 1-2 quarters, the bull case likely needs to be de-rated.