The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks I'm Watching Closest in March

CoreWeave reported revenue of $5.1B in 2025 and is guiding $12–13B for the current year, while booking $5.2B in operating costs, a ~$1.2B net loss and carrying >$20B of debt; it secured a multiyear deal with Perplexity and a minimum $6.3B capacity agreement with Nvidia. TTM Technologies delivered fiscal‑2025 revenue of $2.9B (+19%) and net income of $177.4M, forecasting 15–20% sales growth in fiscal‑2026 and a 66% YoY increase in Q1 data‑center sales. Fastly hit record revenue of $624M in 2025 (from $543.7M), forecasts $700–720M for 2026, but remains unprofitable with a $121.7M net loss and roughly one‑third of revenue concentrated in its top 10 customers; overall the piece signals strong AI‑driven top‑line momentum but notable profitability and leverage risks, warranting a cautious stance.

Analysis

CoreWeave’s commercial tie-up with a dominant GPU supplier alters incentives across the data-center value chain: it reduces short-term revenue volatility for one operator but raises the probability of capacity overhang and price-stealing if that supplier uses excess host capacity to smooth GPU sell-through. That dynamic should widen margins and optionality for the chip supplier while increasing asset-stranding risk for other wholesale hosts who lack a ‘‘buyer-of-last-resort’’. PCB and component manufacturers (TTMI-style operators) sit on the opposite side of this barbell — they gain from steady server build cadence and longer BOM lead times, which translate into higher order visibility and pricing power.

Key near-term catalysts are non-equity: GPU shipment cadence versus orders, credit-market liquidity for highly levered hosting players, and retention metrics among large edge/CDN customers. A shock to any one of those (rate shock, a sudden inventory digestion by hyperscalers, or a major customer leaving an edge provider) can reprice equities very quickly because operating leverage and customer concentration amplify the earnings swing. Watch NVDA supply statements, CRWV covenant schedules, TTMI backlog disclosures, and FSLY top-10 revenue trends as 30–180 day bellwethers.

From a positioning standpoint, prefer structurally cash-generative, capital-light manufacturing exposure over balance-sheet-dependent hosting. Express this through directional and pair trades that pay off if GPU cycles normalize or if credit conditions tighten. For investors leaning contrarian: the market underestimates how a single large chip-supplier acting as a capacity buyer can both prop up one counterparty and hollow out pricing for the rest of the ecosystem — that asymmetry creates asymmetric downside for levered hosts and asymmetric upside for select industrial suppliers and software edge plays with low capex footprints.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long TTMI (size 3–6% portfolio): buy shares or a 12-month call spread (buy 10–15% ITM calls, sell 30–40% OTM calls) to capture sustained server/BOM demand. Target +30–40% upside in 9–15 months if backlog converts; hard stop-loss at -12% from entry to control cycle risk.
• Pair trade — Long TTMI / Short CRWV (equal-dollar, total size 4–6% portfolio): 6–18 month horizon to express manufacturing resilience vs balance-sheet/leverage risk. Profit if TTMI appreciates 20–35% while CRWV rerates down 25–50% following a credit or utilization shock; cut if pair diverges >20% against within 3 months.
• Protection on CoreWeave (size 1–3% portfolio): buy 6–9 month put spread on CRWV (ATM puts bought, 15–25% OTM puts sold) to limit premium outlay while defining maximum loss. Rationale: insures against rapid credit repricing or covenant event; breakeven if CRWV falls ~10–15%.
• Tactical, limited-conviction FSLY trade (size 1–2% portfolio): buy a 9–12 month call spread (ATM to ~30% OTM) to capture AI-traffic upside while capping premium. Target 2–3x return on premium if customer concentration risk eases or agent-driven traffic ramps materially; exit on signs of hyperscaler verticalization (customer attrition or price concessions).