6 in 10 Americans think Trump’s ‘gone too far’ by sending immigration troops into U.S. cities, poll says

An AP-NORC poll of 1,156 U.S. adults (Feb. 5-8) shows roughly 6 in 10 Americans say President Trump has “gone too far” by deploying federal immigration agents in U.S. cities and at protests, while about 4 in 10 approve of his immigration approach. Independent support has slid sharply (approval on immigration down from 37% in March 2025 to 23% now), Republican trust on immigration has narrowed versus Democrats (GOP’s edge fell from 13 points in October to 4 points), and overall presidential approval is 36%. The results point to rising political risk and weakening independent support on a signature policy, a potential headwind for GOP prospects and policy certainty heading into midterms.

Analysis

Market structure: The AP-NORC poll (≈60% say Trump went too far) signals rising public friction that directly pressures municipal retail/hospitality in protest hotspots, private-prison operators (GEO, CXW) and ICE-facing contractors if political backlash yields budget/contract cuts. Winners in the near term are vendors of non-lethal crowd control, surveillance/analytics and federal IT support (PLTR, BAH), and names tied to DHS/CBP if enforcement intensifies; pricing power will bifurcate along partisan funding outcomes within 3–12 months.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include large-scale civil unrest (1–5% monthly probability) that spikes local GDP disruption and lawsuits, and a midterm-driven legislative pivot (20–35% chance over 6–12 months) that either expands or curtails federal enforcement budgets by ±10%–20% for specific agencies. Immediate catalysts are high-profile incidents and court rulings (days–weeks); policy/budget shifts play out over quarters. Hidden dependency: contractor revenues are binary on political control of appropriations committees, not on public polls alone.

Trade implications: Tactical book should overweight DHS/analytics exposure (PLTR) while hedging political budget risk via puts on private-prison names (GEO, CXW). Use pair trades (long LMT vs short CXW) to capture relative resilience of defense primes vs politically vulnerable service providers over 3–12 months. Buy short-dated VIX calls (0.5% portfolio) around major legal/midterm dates to hedge event-driven volatility.

Contrarian angles: Consensus assumes punitive regulation will permanently damage private-prison cash flows — that may be overdone if Republicans retain power and enforcement budgets rise (historical parallel: post-9/11 defense surge). The market may underprice a quick snapback in GEO/CXW on a GOP-favorable midterm; consider asymmetric option positions that profit from both continued downside and a rapid political reversal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2% portfolio short position in GEO Group (GEO) using a 3–6 month put spread (buy 25%–30% OTM puts, sell deeper OTM puts) to limit capital at risk; target a 30–50% spread payoff if shares drop ~20% within 3 months; cut at -15% adverse move.
• Initiate a 2–3% long position in Palantir (PLTR) via buy-and-hold shares or 6-month call spread to capture increased DHS/analytics spending; set a 6–12 month target of +30% and stop-loss at -15%.
• Enter a pair trade: long Lockheed Martin (LMT) 1.5% portfolio weight vs short CoreCivic (CXW) 1.5% for 6–12 months to express defense-budget resilience vs private-prison political risk; tighten pairs if midterm control shifts by >5 percentage points in polls.
• Allocate 0.5% of portfolio to 1-month ATM VIX call options ahead of expected high-profile legal rulings or midterm calendar events (monitor dates within 30–60 days) as tail-volatility insurance; liquidate post-spike.
• If national polling moves to a sustained >8-point GOP trust advantage on immigration within 60 days, trim short positions in GEO/CXW by 50% (political-flip hedge); conversely, if Democratic midterm probability (poll average) exceeds 55% for >30 days, increase put exposure on GEO/CXW by 50%.