The SpaceX IPO Is Coming. These Are the Stocks That Stand to Profit Most.

Rocket Lab posted record 2025 revenue of $602 million, up 38% year over year, and backlog surged 73% to $1.85 billion. Planet Labs also showed strong momentum, with fiscal 2026 revenue of $306 million and backlog up 79% to $900 million. The article argues that SpaceX's planned IPO could lift investor enthusiasm and benefit the broader commercial space sector, including RKLB and PL.

Analysis

The key market implication is not that space is “hot,” but that the sector is moving from story stock to contracted industrials. A much larger SpaceX public valuation would likely compress the perceived discount rate on adjacent names, but the bigger second-order effect is a capital-allocation reset: suppliers, launch-adjacent software, and downstream data users can now tap cheaper equity capital, improving their ability to fund long-duration contracts and widen moat advantages. That tends to favor the most vertically integrated or highest-retention business models first, while weaker balance sheets get drowned out by the richer public comps.

RKLB looks like the cleaner beneficiary because it has exposure to both launch and spacecraft systems, which gives it more operating leverage to a broader re-rating than a pure-play services model. The risk is that sentiment is outrunning execution quality: once the IPO catalyst fades, investors will re-underwrite these names on backlog conversion, margin durability, and launch cadence rather than TAM narratives. Any slip in program milestones or evidence that backlog is long-dated but low-quality would hit RKLB harder because expectations are already elevated.

PL’s setup is more nuanced. The backlog growth is supportive, but Earth-observation demand is more vulnerable to procurement timing and budget churn than launch infrastructure, so the multiple can be more sensitive to proof of monetization. The near-term risk is that enthusiasm around the SpaceX IPO creates a broad basket trade that lifts both names together, but over 6-12 months the market may separate them based on cash burn trajectory and gross margin expansion.

The consensus is underappreciating how much of this move may be a liquidity/attention trade rather than a pure fundamentals trade. That creates opportunity in relative value: if the sector rerates too aggressively into the IPO, the highest beta name can become vulnerable to a sharp post-event mean reversion, while the company with better recurring revenue characteristics may hold gains better. The clearest regime signal will be whether both names continue to outperform after the IPO filing is digested; if not, this is likely a temporary sentiment spike, not a durable sector inflection.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RKLB vs short PL as a 3-6 month relative-value trade if the market keeps bidding the space basket on SpaceX IPO headlines; RKLB should capture more upside from sector re-rating, but cover the short if PL backlog converts faster than expected.
• Buy RKLB on pullbacks only, with a 6-12 month horizon; use the IPO filing as a catalyst, but size for a 20-25% drawdown risk if the market shifts back to execution scrutiny.
• Hold a smaller tactical long PL into the IPO window, but pair it with a trailing stop; the risk/reward is favorable for a sentiment squeeze, though the upside likely lags RKLB unless monetization inflects.
• Avoid chasing both names after a gap-up event; the better entry is 1-2 sessions after the initial IPO headline surge, when implied enthusiasm likely overshoots near-term fundamentals.
• If SpaceX pricing implies a very large valuation step-up, fade the strongest outperformer with short-dated call spreads or a starter short against a space basket; the post-event air pocket could be sharp once attention rotates away.