My Top 10 Stocks to Buy in 2025 Are Beating the Market by 8 Percentage Points. Should You Buy Them for 2026?

Motley Fool analyst Jennifer Saibil reports her annual 10-stock portfolio slightly outpaced the S&P 500 in 2025 (you would have $12,754 vs. $11,770 from a $10,000 S&P investment) but has delivered substantial outperformance over three years ($33,385 vs. $16,990, or ~235% vs. 69%), underscoring her argument to prioritize long-term conviction over short-term noise. She attributes some underperformance this year to an AI-driven rally that disproportionately buoyed the broader index while several high-conviction names faced transient headwinds; two holdings are down in 2025 despite strong underlying business metrics and are viewed as buying opportunities. Company-level takeaways: Amazon shows strong multi-channel growth and AI upside despite near-term investor concerns, American Express remains resilient, Carnival and Dutch Bros face valuation/debt questions, Lemonade and Global-e are benefiting from operational improvements (with Global-e exposed to trade/tariff risks), MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings continue to drive growth (Nu pursuing a U.S. bank charter), On Holdings is pressured by China exposure, and SoFi is accelerating customer and product-driven growth aided by lower rates.

Analysis

The Motley Fool’s 10-stock model slightly outpaced the S&P 500 in 2025 on a $10,000 basis ($12,754 vs. $11,770) but shows outsized three‑year performance ($33,385 vs. $16,990; ~235% vs. 69%), underscoring the author’s long‑term conviction approach. The author attributes this year’s relative underperformance to an AI‑fuelled S&P rally that disproportionately favoured AI‑exposed names while her list is relatively light on that theme; the signal set rates overall sentiment as moderately positive (0.55) with modest market impact (0.3).

At the company level the note highlights specific fundamental developments: Amazon is posting multi‑channel growth and has AI upside but is facing investor concerns around competition and heavy AI spending; Global‑e reached net profitability earlier than expected but is the biggest loser on the list and remains exposed to tariffs; Lemonade is expected to hit adjusted EBITDA profitability this year; Nu has expansion optionality, including a U.S. bank charter application; SoFi is accelerating customer/product growth aided by lower rates.

Valuation and risk points flagged include Carnival’s rebound being partly priced in while debt remains a headwind, Dutch Bros appearing expensive despite strong 2025 performance, and On Holdings and at least one other high‑conviction position trading lower in 2025 despite robust operating metrics—positions the author explicitly cites as buying opportunities. Disclosures note the author and Motley Fool hold positions in many of these names, which is relevant for assessing bias.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider selectively adding to the high‑conviction names trading down (notably Global‑e and On Holdings) where the author identifies strong operating performance and labels them buy‑the‑dip opportunities
• Reweight exposure to AI‑driven momentum versus fundamentals: avoid chasing the AI rally into richly valued names and instead favor companies on this list with improving profitability catalysts (Lemonade EBITDA progress, Nu expansion, SoFi customer/product traction)
• Monitor idiosyncratic catalysts closely—Carnival’s debt reduction progress, Global‑e tariff mitigation, and Nu’s U.S. bank charter application—and use announced improvements as triggers to add exposure
• Favor durable compounders called out for multi‑year growth (MercadoLibre, American Express) for core holdings while using cyclical/valuation risks (Dutch Bros, Carnival) as tactical trimming opportunities
• Account for disclosure risk—the author and Motley Fool hold positions in many featured names—so size new positions accordingly and consider hedges or staggered entries