These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

The Zacks Earnings ESP tool, which gauges the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is highlighted as a predictive indicator for earnings surprises. Backtested results show that stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 or better delivered positive surprises 70% of the time, averaging 28.3% annual returns over a decade. Notably, Ally Financial (ALLY) with a +4.24% ESP and Goldman Sachs (GS) with a +5.91% ESP are currently identified as finance stocks with strong potential for positive earnings beats ahead of their respective October 2025 reports, providing a data-driven signal for institutional earnings season strategies.

Analysis

Quantitative analysis based on the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model indicates a heightened probability of positive earnings surprises for both Ally Financial (ALLY) and Goldman Sachs (GS) ahead of their mid-October 2025 reporting dates. Specifically, ALLY exhibits a positive ESP of +4.24%, derived from its Most Accurate Estimate of $1.03 per share surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.99. Similarly, GS shows an even stronger signal with a +5.91% positive ESP, as its Most Accurate Estimate of $11.21 per share stands well above the $10.58 consensus. The methodology's significance is supported by a 10-year backtest claiming that stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better, which both ALLY and GS currently possess, have historically delivered positive earnings surprises 70% of the time. This presents a tactical, data-driven signal for an earnings beat, although the #3 (Hold) rank for both firms suggests their broader performance is expected to be in-line with the market, distinguishing this short-term catalyst from a fundamental long-term buy recommendation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors could consider establishing tactical long positions in ALLY and GS ahead of their respective October 2025 earnings calls to potentially capture upside from a positive earnings surprise.
• Given the probabilistic nature of the ESP model, which implies a 30% historical failure rate, positions should be sized appropriately and risk-managed, especially since both stocks carry a neutral 'Hold' rating.
• This quantitative signal should be used as a screen and supplemented with fundamental analysis, particularly on interest rate sensitivity for Ally and investment banking and trading revenues for Goldman Sachs, to form a complete investment thesis.