6 of My Top 10 Stocks for 2025 Increased by More Than 25%. Are They Still Buys Now?

Six of the author’s prior top-10 picks (dLocal, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, TSMC, ASML and Alphabet) rose more than 25% in 2025, and the analyst expects Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and dLocal could each again gain at least 25% in 2026 driven by sustained AI spending (Nvidia GPUs and TSMC logic chips) and growth opportunities for dLocal in emerging markets (the stock remains ~80% below its all-time high). CrowdStrike, ASML and Alphabet are still recommended but are viewed as fully valued — ASML at ~43x forward earnings, Alphabet at ~29x forward earnings and CrowdStrike at ~25x sales — which may limit upside though they could still outperform the market.

Analysis

Market structure: The clear near-term winners are NVIDIA (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) as GPU-led AI compute demand lifts pricing power for high-end nodes and wafer-allocation; ASML benefits from tool backlog but its 43x forward multiple implies most upside is priced in. Payments specialist dLocal (DLO) is a high-beta recovery/EM exposure play — its addressable market is large but concentrated by country/regulatory risk. Expect tight supply in advanced logic capacity through 2026 (TSM utilization >90% implied) and continued inventory-led price stickiness for GPUs, supporting hardware > software in the next 4–12 quarters.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include export controls or sanctions cutting off Chinese demand (TSM revenue shock >15% within a quarter), an AI capex pause that reduces NVDA/FAB orders by >20% YoY, or regional fintech regulation hitting DLO’s take-rates. Immediate (days) moves will be earnings/guidance reactions; short-term (weeks–months) driven by order/backlog and tool shipments; long-term (2–3 years) by structural AI adoption and fab buildouts. Hidden dependencies: NVDA’s growth is hyperscaler-concentrated and TSM depends on ASML delivery cadence — monitor backlog and EUV shipment schedules as second-order indicators.

Trade implications: Favor size into NVDA and TSM while capping exposure to high multiple software (ASML, CRWD) that price-in perfection; use 6–18 month option spreads to control downside. Recommended catalysts to trade into: NVDA/TSM earnings and capex guides over next 60 days, ASML orderbook updates, DLO monthly active merchant/FX trends. Cross-asset: expect higher commodity and power demand (data-center energy/copper), modest upward pressure on corporate tech credit spreads as capex funds shift to hardware.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates TSM’s margin of safety if it wins incremental share for sub-3nm nodes — a 10–15% upside is plausible if ASML tool cadence slips. Conversely ASML at 43x forward EPS is vulnerable to even small delivery delays; downside of 15–25% is credible on a single-quarter miss. DLO is under-owned relative to EM payments TAM — allocate small, asymmetric positions rather than full conviction longs. Watch for overbuild risks: if hyperscalers defer capacity, hardware inventories could trigger a swift re-pricing within 3–6 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in NVDA through a mix of shares (1.5–2%) and a 9–12 month call spread (buy LEAP/Jan-2027 call, sell higher strike) to cap premium; trim/halve position if NVDA guidance misses revenue/pricing visibility by >10% or price falls >15% from entry.
• Add 2–3% long TSM (shares or 6–12 month call spreads) to capture fab tightness — reduce other semi-capex exposure if TSM’s foundry backlog growth decelerates to <5% QoQ or China revenue share drops >15% in a quarter.
• Reduce ASML exposure by 20–30% if position >2% of portfolio; instead sell 3–6 month covered calls on remaining ASML to harvest premium given 43x forward multiple and elevated expectations — exit if ASML delays EUV shipments by >1 quarter.
• Allocate up to 0.5–1% as a speculative, asymmetric long in DLO using long-dated calls (e.g., Jan-2027) or small share buys: take-profit at +50% and stop-loss at -50%; exit immediately if regulatory fines/FX losses exceed 5% of reported quarterly revenue.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: long NVDA (1.5%) vs short CRWD (1.0%) to express hardware-dominant AI upside vs richly valued cybersecurity SaaS; use put spreads on CRWD if implied vol <80%, and unwind if CRWD grows ARR >150 bps QoQ or NVDA guidance disappoints.